Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 24

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 24, 2022, 11:21 AM
  • The Pirates (55-96) are -115 favorites vs the Cubs (66-85)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Wade Miley (1-1), 3.48 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo (3-2), 3.69 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at +1.5.

The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 65-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 75-74 ATS.

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5O 7.5 -110-105
Pirates +1.5U 7.5 -110-115

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 52 games at home (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)

Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Diego Castillo 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Greg Allen 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Jason Delay 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500

Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Diego Castillo 0.5 -145 0.5 +105
Greg Allen 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jason Delay 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Diego Castillo 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Greg Allen 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jason Delay 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Ke'Bryan Hayes 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Johan Oviedo 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Wade Miley 3.5 +105 3.5 -155
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+16.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+11.35 Units / 142% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 away games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 42 games at home (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 73-75 against the Run Line (-13.55 Units / -7.14% ROI).

  • 65-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -7.21% ROI
  • 61-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.4 Units / -13.68% ROI
  • 76-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 5.49% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.68% ROI).

  • 55-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -9.41% ROI
  • 67-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -7.7% ROI
  • 73-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI

Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.8 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (122 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 87.9

Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 62% of the time (511/826) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (318/545) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.

Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.0 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (252 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 87.8

Johan Oviedo: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Johan Oviedo has walked 14 of 65 batters (21%) this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Johan Oviedo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.2 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 25.0.

Johan Oviedo has walked 6 of 37 right-handed batters (16%) this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

67% of Johan Oviedo strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 51% — 95th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 31-44 (.413) at home this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Cubs are just 50-6 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 2-76 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Pirates are just 28-45 (.384) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 379 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Cubs hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 32 total hits (just 19%) against LHP this month (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .446 (6,051 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,978 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,156 of 11,945 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 63 of 537 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 93 of 820 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 35 of 245 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.