- The Pirates (55-96) are -115 favorites vs the Cubs (66-85)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Wade Miley (1-1), 3.48 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Johan Oviedo (3-2), 3.69 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at +1.5.
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 65-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 75-74 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 | O 7.5 -110 | -105 |
| Pirates | +1.5 | U 7.5 -110 | -115 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 52 games at home (+11.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cal Mitchell has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- JT Brubaker has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.95 Units / 43% ROI)
Pirates vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 -110 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Pirates vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Diego Castillo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Greg Allen | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jason Delay | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johan Oviedo | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Wade Miley | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+16.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 away games (+11.35 Units / 142% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 away games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 42 games at home (+6.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+3.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.95 Units / 54% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 73-75 against the Run Line (-13.55 Units / -7.14% ROI).
- 65-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -7.21% ROI
- 61-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.4 Units / -13.68% ROI
- 76-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 5.49% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-74 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.68% ROI).
- 55-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -9.41% ROI
- 67-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -7.7% ROI
- 73-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI
Wade Miley: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.8 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (122 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 87.9
Wade Miley has thrown his cutter 62% of the time (511/826) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total CUT; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (318/545) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.0 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (252 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 87.8
Johan Oviedo: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Johan Oviedo has walked 14 of 65 batters (21%) this month (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Johan Oviedo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.2 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Johan Oviedo has walked 6 of 37 right-handed batters (16%) this month (4 games) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
67% of Johan Oviedo strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 51% — 95th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 31-44 (.413) at home this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Cubs are just 50-6 (.893) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 92-25 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 2-76 (.026) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Pirates are just 28-45 (.384) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Pirates are just 57-131 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 379 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have 6 extra-base hits out of 32 total hits (just 19%) against LHP this month (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .306 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .446 (6,051 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Pirates are batting just .138 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,978 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,156 of 11,945 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 63 of 537 batters (12%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 93 of 820 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 35 of 245 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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