Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:37 AM
  • The Pirates (56-96) are -110 favorites vs the Cubs (66-86)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (2-5), 3.35 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz (0-0), 0.84 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 66-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 76-75 ATS.

Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5O 8 -115-110
Pirates 1.5U 8 -105-110

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 53 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Cal Mitchell has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+10.25 Units / 112% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 20% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 74-78 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -8.34% ROI).

  • 66-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.3 Units / -7.15% ROI
  • 62-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.6 Units / -14.12% ROI
  • 78-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 5.99% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.63% ROI).

  • 56-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -9.58% ROI
  • 68-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -7.65% ROI
  • 74-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 15 opportunities (40%) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 12 double plays in 54 opportunities (22%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has walked 4 of 20 left-handed batters (20%) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 23% (11 SO in 48 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Luis Ortiz: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.1 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 25.0.

Luis Ortiz has allowed an OPS of just .349 (42 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .703 — 99th Percentile.

Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of just .135 (5 Total Bases / 37 ABs) this month (2 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .108 (4-for-37) against Luis Ortiz this month (2 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 97th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 6-63 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 17-82 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Pirates are just 26-51 (.338) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Pirates are just 39-201 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 379 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 767 strikeouts in 3,064 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .656 (3,488 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Cubs have won just 29% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,978 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 93 of 820 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,156 of 11,945 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 7.56 (50.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.77.

Pirates pitchers have walked 35 of 245 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.