- The Pirates (56-96) are -110 favorites vs the Cubs (66-86)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (2-5), 3.35 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz (0-0), 0.84 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 66-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 76-75 ATS.
Cubs vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Pirates | –1.5 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 53 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+9.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 28 games at home (+8.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cal Mitchell has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.05 Units / 29% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+10.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.20 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 74-78 against the Run Line (-16.25 Units / -8.34% ROI).
- 66-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.3 Units / -7.15% ROI
- 62-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.6 Units / -14.12% ROI
- 78-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 5.99% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-6.8 Units / -3.63% ROI).
- 56-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -15 Units / -9.58% ROI
- 68-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -7.65% ROI
- 74-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.6 Units / -0.36% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 6 double plays in 15 opportunities (40%) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 12 double plays in 54 opportunities (22%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has walked 4 of 20 left-handed batters (20%) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 23% (11 SO in 48 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Luis Ortiz: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.1 innings pitched — Jonathan Loaisiga has the longest active streak at 25.0.
Luis Ortiz has allowed an OPS of just .349 (42 PA’s) this month (2 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .703 — 99th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of just .135 (5 Total Bases / 37 ABs) this month (2 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .108 (4-for-37) against Luis Ortiz this month (2 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 97th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 6-63 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Cubs are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Pirates are just 93-25 (.788) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 17-82 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Pirates are just 26-51 (.338) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Pirates are just 39-201 (.162) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .180 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 379 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have 767 strikeouts in 3,064 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .656 (3,488 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .364 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs have won just 29% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,978 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 93 of 820 batters (11%) this month (21 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,156 of 11,945 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 7.56 (50.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.77.
Pirates pitchers have walked 35 of 245 batters (14%) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Heineman (Pirates): Concussion, D7
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, Day-to-Day
- Eric Stout (Pirates): Undisclosed, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Lat, D15
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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