- The Cubs are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Reds starting pitcher: Connor Overton
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Monday, April 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 1-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 2-1 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -115 | +100 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Overton | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Drew Smyly | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 108 games (+16.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 165 games (+13.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 away games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 away games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 84 games at home (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -39.29% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -32.31% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -39.13% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 28.57% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 2-1 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 65% ROI).
- 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 14.46% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -34.33% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 30.77% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,684/3,953) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,331/2,952) against right-handed batters since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
20 of Drew Smyly’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) were backdoor in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly threw his curveball 48% of the time (666/1,396) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Connor Overton has not struck out a hitter in his last 35 PAs against a LHH dating back to May 12nd, 2022 — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Connor Overton has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to April 30th, 2022 — John Brebbia has the longest active streak at 11.
The last hit on a Connor Overton breaking pitch was May 17th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Huascar Brazoban has the longest active streak at 21.
Connor Overton had a strikeout rate of just 11% (4/35) over the last 30 days of the regular season (2 games) — tied for 13th lowest among among 253 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 32-21 (.604) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 57-43 (.570) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Cubs are just 26-98 (.210) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cubs were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds were just 52-5 (.912) when leading entering the 9th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Reds are 24-13 (.649) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 55 double plays in 388 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds hitters had an OBP of just .296 (4,380 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,152 of 12,481 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cubs have won just 31% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,241 of 12,530 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 130 of 1,427 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Oblique, D10
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
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