Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 11, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (45-65) are -105 favorites vs the Reds (44-66)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (4-6), 3.97 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (3-3), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit Field of Dreams to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-115) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Dyersville.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 45-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 52-58 ATS.

Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5 +150O 9 -115-105
Reds +1.5 -185U 9 -105-115

Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s matchup with 70.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 56 games (+18.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.95 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 61 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+15.65 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.30 Units / 90% ROI)

Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Donovan Solano 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Joey Votto 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Jonathan India 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Aristides Aquino 0.5 -125 0.5 -115
Donovan Solano 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Joey Votto 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jonathan India 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Aristides Aquino 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Donovan Solano 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Joey Votto 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Jonathan India 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Lodolo 7.5 +110 7.5 -155
Drew Smyly 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 41 away games (+5.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 away games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+3.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+14.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+10.20 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.10 Units / 39% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 56-54 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.48% ROI).

  • 45-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.4 Units / -13.92% ROI
  • 47-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -12.82% ROI
  • 57-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 4.62% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 52-58 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -8.57% ROI).

  • 44-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -8.29% ROI
  • 56-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -2.54% ROI
  • 53-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -7.25% ROI

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,371/3,270) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,044/2,371) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.

14 of Drew Smyly’s 40 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (379/815) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Lodolo has walked 4 of 22 batters (18%) this month (1 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 56% (56/100) this month (1 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (5/39) against Nick Lodolo this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 39% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (39/100) this month (1 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 18-52 (.257) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 6-31 (.162) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Cubs are just 44-52 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Cubs are just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 3-53 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Reds are just 3-55 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.

The Cubs are batting just .075 against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .125 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.

The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 329 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,994 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

Reds hitters are slugging just .247 against RHP this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

The Reds are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Reds hitters are slugging just .330 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 60 double plays in 853 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 414 of 4,239 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,031 of 10,438 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.