- The Cubs (45-65) are -105 favorites vs the Reds (44-66)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (4-6), 3.97 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (3-3), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Chicago Cubs (-105) visit Field of Dreams to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-115) on Thursday, August 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Dyersville.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 45-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 52-58 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | O 9 -115 | -105 |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -105 | -115 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 43 of his last 56 games (+18.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+16.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 61 games (+16.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+15.65 Units / 39% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.30 Units / 90% ROI)
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Albert Almora Jr. | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Aristides Aquino | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -155 |
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+12.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games (+9.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 41 away games (+5.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 41 away games (+5.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 away games (+3.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+14.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 33 games (+10.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+7.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 56-54 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.48% ROI).
- 45-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.4 Units / -13.92% ROI
- 47-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.55 Units / -12.82% ROI
- 57-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.6 Units / 4.62% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 52-58 against the Run Line (-11.7 Units / -8.57% ROI).
- 44-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -8.29% ROI
- 56-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -2.54% ROI
- 53-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -7.25% ROI
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (1,371/3,270) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,044/2,371) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 135 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
14 of Drew Smyly’s 40 breaking pitch strikeouts (35%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (379/815) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 54 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has walked 4 of 22 batters (18%) this month (1 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strike rate of just 56% (56/100) this month (1 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (5/39) against Nick Lodolo this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 39% of Nick Lodolo’s pitches (39/100) this month (1 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 18-52 (.257) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 6-31 (.162) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Cubs are just 44-52 (.458) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Cubs are just 7-42 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Reds are just 3-53 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Reds are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Reds are just 3-55 (.052) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .088.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .075 against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .125 (56 PA’s) against LHP this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Cubs are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 329 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,994 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Reds hitters are slugging just .247 against RHP this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Reds are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Reds hitters are slugging just .330 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 60 double plays in 853 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 414 of 4,239 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,031 of 10,438 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D10
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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