Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski (3-1), 2.33 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (4-13), 4.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Chicago Cubs (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 73-86 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 74-85 ATS.

Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -190O 7.5 -105+105
Reds -1.5 +155U 7.5 -115-125

Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s matchup with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Adrian Sampson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jake Fraley 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jonathan India 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jose Barrero 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jake Fraley 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jonathan India 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jose Barrero 0.5 +105 0.5 -145
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Donovan Solano 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jake Fraley 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jonathan India 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jose Barrero 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 8.5 -150 8.5 +105
Hayden Wesneski 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 82 games (+18.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games (+17.50 Units / 80% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+15.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 105 games (+15.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 72 of their last 131 games (+13.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.26 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+12.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.30 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 80-79 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -5.27% ROI).

  • 73-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -1.88% ROI
  • 64-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.2 Units / -14.95% ROI
  • 82-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +12 Units / 6.85% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 74-85 against the Run Line (-20.05 Units / -10.12% ROI).

  • 60-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -13.66% ROI
  • 75-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -7.22% ROI
  • 79-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -2.21% ROI

Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (20/49) against Hayden Wesneski on the first pitch of at-bats — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 34% — 91st Percentile.

Hayden Wesneski has allowed an OPS of just .493 (30 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .685 — 82nd Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has averaged 98.8 MPH on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has thrown 436 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 34% (89/264) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 6-63 (.087) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 6-175 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are just 29-52 (.358) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Reds are just 4-85 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Reds are just 43-9 (.827) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .176 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

Cubs hitters have been successful in 74% of their bunt for hit attempts since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs hitters have 777 strikeouts in 3,125 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .416 (103 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .648.

Reds hitters are slugging just .109 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .555.

The Reds are batting just .294 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters are slugging just .384 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Reds hitters are slugging just .475 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 18% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,215 of 12,305 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 598 of 6,106 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 304 of 3,345 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.