Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Cubs (73-87) are -110 favorites vs the Reds (61-99)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad (2-2), 3.61 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (4-4), 4.75 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Chicago Cubs (-110) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-110) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 73-87 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 75-85 ATS.

Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5 +145O 8.5 -105-110
Reds +1.5 -175U 8.5 -115-110

Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Adrian Sampson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Donovan Solano 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jose Barrero 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Mike Siani 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Donovan Solano 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jose Barrero 0.5 -110 0.5 -130
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Mike Siani 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Chuckie Robinson 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Donovan Solano 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jose Barrero 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Mike Siani 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Assad 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 away games (+5.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -6.2% ROI).

  • 73-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -2.42% ROI
  • 64-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.3 Units / -15.48% ROI
  • 83-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +13 Units / 7.38% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-85 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -9.22% ROI).

  • 61-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.2 Units / -12.97% ROI
  • 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.8 Units / -7.79% ROI
  • 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.85 Units / -1.62% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (7/31) against Javier Assad — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 38% — 96th Percentile.

Luis Cessa: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Cessa has struck out just 17% (54/315) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 20% (5 SO in 25 PAs) with two-strikes — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 61% (357/581) in two strike counts since the start of last season — tied for 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — ninth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 60% of the time (349/579) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 44-9 (.830) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Reds are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Reds are just 11-75 (.128) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.

The Reds are just 5-77 (.061) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .176 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.

Cubs hitters have 777 strikeouts in 3,125 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 54 double plays in 386 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .416 (103 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .648.

Reds hitters are slugging just .104 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .552.

The Reds are batting just .293 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters are slugging just .474 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

The Reds are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,129 of 12,292 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,219 of 12,336 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,432 of 14,461 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 129 of 1,409 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.