- The Cubs (73-88) are -120 favorites vs the Reds (62-99)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (4-5), 3.09 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-5), 4.51 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 73-88 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 75-85 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 +100 | -120 |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | U 8.5 -120 | +100 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Adrian Sampson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Romine | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -125 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Romine | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Donovan Solano | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Fraley | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Barrero | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Farmer | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -145 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 28 away games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -6.2% ROI).
- 73-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -3.03% ROI
- 64-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -16.02% ROI
- 84-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +14 Units / 7.9% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-85 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -9.22% ROI).
- 62-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -12.31% ROI
- 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -8.39% ROI
- 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.05% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 14 double plays in 58 opportunities (24%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .067 (1-for-15) against Adrian Sampson — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of just .735 (88 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 1.031 — 97th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has struck out just 14% (30/210) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (921/1,210) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (97/157) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (332/439) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 13rd — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are just 4-85 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 6-77 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .176 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs are batting .371 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters have 777 strikeouts in 3,125 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .620 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .296 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters are slugging just .482 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .538 (446 PA’s) over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Reds hitters are slugging just .348 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,133 of 12,325 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,221 of 12,371 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 604 of 6,172 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 259 of 2,858 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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