Cubs vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cubs (73-88) are -120 favorites vs the Reds (62-99)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (4-5), 3.09 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-5), 4.51 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Chicago Cubs (-120) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+100) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 73-88 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 75-85 ATS.

Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs-1.5 +135O 8.5 +100-120
Reds +1.5 -160U 8.5 -120+100

Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 away games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Adrian Sampson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.20 Units / 65% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+11.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Romine 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Donovan Solano 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Jake Fraley 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jose Barrero 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500

Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Romine 0.5 -115 0.5 -125
Donovan Solano 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jake Fraley 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jose Barrero 0.5 -125 0.5 -110
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Romine 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Donovan Solano 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jake Fraley 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jose Barrero 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 4.5 +105 4.5 -145
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 -120 4.5 -115
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 28 away games (+4.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.30 Units / 41% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-12.7 Units / -6.2% ROI).

  • 73-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -3.03% ROI
  • 64-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -16.02% ROI
  • 84-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +14 Units / 7.9% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 75-85 against the Run Line (-18.35 Units / -9.22% ROI).

  • 62-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -12.31% ROI
  • 75-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -8.39% ROI
  • 81-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.05% ROI

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 14 double plays in 58 opportunities (24%) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed batters batted just .067 (1-for-15) against Adrian Sampson — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .207 — 98th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has allowed an OPS of just .735 (88 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 1.031 — 97th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has struck out just 14% (30/210) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — eighth Percentile.

Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (921/1,210) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (97/157) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 76% of the time (332/439) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to August 13rd — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

The Cubs are just 6-64 (.086) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Cubs are just 37-44 (.457) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Reds are just 4-85 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are 12-7 (.632) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 6-77 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .176 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.

The Cubs are batting .371 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Cubs hitters have 777 strikeouts in 3,125 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .620 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

The Reds are batting just .296 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters are slugging just .482 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .538 (446 PA’s) over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .682.

Reds hitters are slugging just .348 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,133 of 12,325 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 18% of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,221 of 12,371 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 604 of 6,172 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 259 of 2,858 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.