- The Royals are -120 favorites vs the Cubs
- Cubs vs Royals Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Cubs / Royals TV Channel: MARQ | BSKC
The Chicago Cubs (+105) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-125) on Saturday, July 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Cubs are 49-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 60-44 ATS.
Cubs vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 8-2, 2.87 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 12-4, 2.38 ERA
Cubs vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -105 | +105 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -115 | -125 |
Cubs vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 35 games (+24.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+17.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+11.45 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+16.55 Units / 66% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 44 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 18 games (+12.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.90 Units / 42% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+16.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+4.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 54 games at home (+16.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+13.29 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games at home (+8.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 50-55 against the Run Line (-17.1 Units / -11.71% ROI).
- 49-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.1 Units / -6.4% ROI
- 43-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.9 Units / -18.92% ROI
- 59-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +12 Units / 10.4% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 60-44 against the Run Line (+7.84 Units / 5.53% ROI).
- 57-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.7 Units / 6.75% ROI
- 42-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.55 Units / -19.08% ROI
- 58-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.55 Units / 10.15% ROI
Royals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Royals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Garrett Hampson (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Royals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga (CHC) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has walked 17 of 423 batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has walked 4 of 158 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 56% of Shota Imanaga’s pitches (873/1,571) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .137 (16-for-117) against Shota Imanaga’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (30/162) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — eighth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .233 (17 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .351 — 92nd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has walked 5 of 102 batters (5%) with runners in scoring position this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 92nd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .305 (53 Total Bases / 174 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 88th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Cubs are just 39-5 (.886) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Cubs are just 116-9 (.928) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Cubs are just 7-15 (.318) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .457.
The Cubs are just 6-186 (.031) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Royals are just 20-98 (.169) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Royals are just 38-41 (.481) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .622.
The Royals are just 13-68 (.160) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .312 on the road this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Cubs are batting .165 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .154.
The Cubs are batting just .226 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs hitters have just 6 strikeouts in 44 PA’s (14%) against LHP over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,727 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals are batting just .226 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 85 of 923 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 761 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 33% of their games this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH since last season (6,616 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.62 (254.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.06.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
- Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
- Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
- Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL
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