Cubs vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 28

Kansas City Royals' Vinnie Pasquantino at bat during the first inning of a baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays, Monday, April 3, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo.
(AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)
  • The Royals are -175 favorites vs the Cubs
  • Cubs vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Cubs / Royals TV Channel: MARQ | BSKC

The Chicago Cubs (+145) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-175) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

This season, the Cubs are 50-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 60-45 ATS.

Cubs vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad 4-3, 3.16 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Cole Ragans 7-6, 3.24 ERA

Cubs vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -135O 9 -115+145
Royals -1.5 +110U 9 -105-175

Cubs vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 36 games (+23.40 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.80 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Busch has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 away games (+12.50 Units / 80% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+14.70 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+12.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Nick Loftin has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Nick Loftin has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Nick Loftin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+15.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.20 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.55 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 away games (+4.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+14.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games at home (+12.29 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 55 games at home (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 51-55 against the Run Line (-16.1 Units / -10.89% ROI).

  • 50-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -5.45% ROI
  • 44-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.9 Units / -17.89% ROI
  • 59-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.9 Units / 9.36% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 60-45 against the Run Line (+6.84 Units / 4.79% ROI).

  • 57-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 5.6% ROI
  • 43-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.55 Units / -18.02% ROI
  • 58-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 9.09% ROI

Royals vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +325 0.5 -450
Christopher Morel (CHC) 0.5 +360 0.5 -500
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Hunter Renfroe (KC) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650

Royals vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Michael Massey (KC) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Hunter Renfroe (KC) 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Nick Loftin (KC) 0.5 -190 0.5 +145
Kyle Isbel (KC) 0.5 -190 0.5 +140

Royals vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +100 0.5 -135
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Michael Massey (KC) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Hunter Renfroe (KC) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Royals vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cole Ragans (KC) 6.5 -155 6.5 +120
Javier Assad (CHC) 3.5 +105 3.5 -135

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 40% (282/713) against Javier Assad this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .137 (24-for-175) against Javier Assad with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .253 — 100th Percentile.

Javier Assad has walked 22 of 179 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Javier Assad has allowed an OPS of just .451 (208 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .739 — 100th Percentile.

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (328/1,004) against Cole Ragans this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .500 (10 GB hits out of 20 GBs) against Cole Ragans with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 34% (293/849) against Cole Ragans this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of just .351 (194 Total Bases / 553 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: .489 — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Cubs are just 6-187 (.031) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.

The Cubs are 18-6 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .639.

The Cubs are just 40-5 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .945.

The Cubs are just 49-48 (.505) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Royals are just 20-99 (.168) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.

The Royals are 21-9 (.700) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.

The Royals are just 16-58 (.216) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .378.

The Cubs are just 12-32 (.273) against the run line (-46.0% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.

The Cubs are batting just .232 this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .363 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.

Cubs hitters have 94 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (just 32%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .281 (4,727 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Royals hitters have just 148 strikeouts in 854 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Royals hitters have drawn 53 walks in 854 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 32% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 50 double plays in 766 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 85 of 940 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Cubs pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH in the 2023 season (4,045 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • MJ Melendez (Kansas City Royals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
  • Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 60-Day IL
  • Shane Greene (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
  • Ben Brown (Chicago Cubs): Neck, 15-Day IL
  • Nick Madrigal (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
  • Matt Mervis (Chicago Cubs): Hand, 7-Day IL
  • Luis Vazquez (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
  • Yency Almonte (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Keegan Thompson (Chicago Cubs): Ribs, 15-Day IL
  • Jordan Wicks (Chicago Cubs): Oblique, 60-Day IL
  • Hayden Wesneski (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Luke Little (Chicago Cubs): Lat, 60-Day IL
  • Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Adbert Alzolay (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.