- The Cubs are -118 favorites vs the Twins
- Cubs vs Twins Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Cubs / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | MARQ | MLBN
The Chicago Cubs (-118) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-102) on Thursday, July 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Cubs are 54-38 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 45-44 ATS.
Cubs vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Colin Rea 6-3, 4.15 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 3-7, 4.65 ERA
Cubs vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | O 9.5 -105 | -118 |
| Twins | +1.5 -170 | U 9.5 -115 | -102 |
Cubs vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+35.00 Units / 438% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.30 Units / 89% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.10 Units / 253% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Chris Paddack has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 46 of their last 90 games (+11.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 86 games (+10.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+6.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+5.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 83 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games at home (+7.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+6.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 85 games (+5.90 Units / 6% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 44-48 against the Run Line (-4.03 Units / -3.68% ROI).
- 54-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.8 Units / 6.53% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.45 Units / 3.43% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.9 Units / -11.67% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 45-44 against the Run Line (+0.75 Units / 0.65% ROI).
- 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.7 Units / -8.2% ROI
- 39-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.55 Units / -14.45% ROI
- 49-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.85 Units / 5.74% ROI
Twins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Twins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Twins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Twins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea (CHC) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 14% (13/94) against Colin Rea when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .277 (111-for-401) against Colin Rea when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — seventh Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OBP of just .167 (24 PA’s) this month (1 game) — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .296 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Colin Rea this month (1 game) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 18% (23 SO in 130 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — fifth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (42/118) against Chris Paddack when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has struck out just 15% (30/203) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 11th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has walked 5% of left-handed batters this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 88th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Cubs are 27-10 (.730) after a loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Cubs are 24-22 (.522) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Cubs are 28-5 (.848) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Cubs are 54-38 (.587) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Twins are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Twins are just 2-107 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are 26-18 (.591) after a win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Twins are just 4-8 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .467 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .227 (212 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .290 (366 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Cubs hitters have drawn walks in 4% of their PA’s against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .099 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters are slugging just .129 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .176 (222 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Twins have a winning percentage of just 40% on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Cubs pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 40 double plays in 621 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 31% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
More MLB Reading:
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