The Chicago Cubs have a win total of 88.5 entering the 2026 season, according to the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Cubs Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 88.5 wins: -115
- Under 88.5 wins: -105
Cubs Win Total Prediction 2026
- Under 88.5 wins
Based on the updated MLB betting lines, I like the under on the Cubs’ win total of 88.5 for the 2026 season.
Fading the Cubs as National League Central favorites has typically been the right move of late. Chicago hasn’t won a full-season division title since 2017, but its win total being four games higher than any other NL Central team suggests that will change.
The Cubs’ win total hasn’t been this high since 2017. They haven’t finished under their preseason mark in five of their past eight full seasons.
Coming off a 92-win campaign, Chicago replaced the loss of Kyle Tucker as a key offensive contributor by signing Alex Bregman in free agency. The Cubs are hoping their offense continues to perform after ranking fifth in total runs last year.
However, I’m expecting some offensive regression. PECOTA projects 10 teams to score more runs than the Cubs this year. For what it’s worth, Chicago scored the 13th-most runs in baseball during the 2024 season.
Don’t get me wrong, the Cubs still have a strong lineup capable of winning the NL Central. There are no easy outs at the top of the order between Bregman, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Nico Hoerner.
But if the offense takes any sort of step back, I’m not convinced Chicago has the pitching to win 90-plus games. According to RosterResource, the Cubs rank 20th in projected pitching WAR for the upcoming season. They ranked 20th in FIP last year.
I see more paths to an under on a high total, but the Cubs’ futures odds are worth monitoring if their offense looks like it’s still humming to start the year.
Cubs Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 86.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2024 | 84.5 | 83 | Under |
| 2023 | 77.5 | 83 | Over |
| 2022 | 74.5 | 74 | Under |
| 2021 | 78.5 | 71 | Under |
| 2020 | 32.5 | 34 | Over |
| 2019 | 87.5 | 84 | Under |
| 2018 | 93.5 | 95 | Over |
| 2017 | 96.5 | 92 | Under |
| 2016 | 93.5 | 103 | Over |
| 2015 | 83 | 97 | Over |
| 2014 | 70 | 73 | Over |
| 2013 | 72.5 | 66 | Under |
| 2012 | 74.5 | 61 | Under |
| 2011 | 81.5 | 71 | Under |
| 2010 | 82 | 75 | Under |
| 2009 | 92.5 | 83 | Under |
| 2008 | 87 | 97 | Over |
| 2007 | 85.5 | 66 | Under |
| 2006 | 85 | 66 | Under |
| 2005 | 88 | 79 | Under |
| 2004 | 92 | 89 | Under |
| 2003 | 82 | 88 | Over |
| 2002 | 97.5 | 67 | Under |
| 2001 | 74.5 | 88 | Over |
| 2000 | 74.5 | 65 | Under |
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