Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 27, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (101-53) are -200 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (71-83)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies (2-4), 4.03 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr. (4-1), 2.37 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+170) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-200) on Tuesday, September 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 71-83 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 83-71 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -115O 8 +100+170
Astros -1.5 -105U 8 -120-200

Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 64.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Zac Gallen has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 71 games at home (+17.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Aledmys Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 69% ROI)

Astros vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Chas McCormick 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jose Altuve 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +340 0.5 -600

Astros vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Chas McCormick 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jose Altuve 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Martin Maldonado 0.5 -115 0.5 -120

Astros vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Chas McCormick 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jose Altuve 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +120 0.5 -165

Astros vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Davies 3.5 +120 3.5 -175
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 76 games (+39.65 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 143 games (+23.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 away games (+15.00 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 67 of their last 119 games (+9.50 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 91 of their last 141 games (+30.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 152 games (+25.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 94 of their last 138 games (+19.35 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 76 of their last 135 games (+17.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games at home (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 89-65 against the Run Line (+21.05 Units / 10.78% ROI).

  • 71-83 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.44% ROI
  • 68-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.85 Units / -12.34% ROI
  • 81-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.3 Units / 3.11% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 83-71 against the Run Line (+12.7 Units / 6.93% ROI).

  • 101-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.85 Units / 5.47% ROI
  • 56-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.55 Units / -23.46% ROI
  • 88-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +25.65 Units / 15.02% ROI

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 69% of the time (369/531) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his pitches away 65% of the time (781/1,198) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (713/1,120) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Zach Davies has located his fastball away 60% of the time (1,474/2,459) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (99/520) against Lance McCullers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 50% of the time (857/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,367/1,719) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 23% (197/858) against Lance McCullers on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Diamondbacks are just 110-35 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 121-23 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 32-180 (.151) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Diamondbacks are just 11-34 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Astros are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Astros are 43-5 (.896) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Astros are 83-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .509 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .178 against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .221 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .233 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

Astros hitters have just 687 strikeouts in 3,846 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 817 strikeouts in 4,506 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 307 strikeouts in 1,765 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,349 strikeouts in 12,058 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (25 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
  • Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.