- The Astros (102-53) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (71-84)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (12-3), 2.45 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (17-4), 1.82 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 71-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 84-71 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -145 | O 6.5 -115 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | U 6.5 -105 | -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Zac Gallen has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 71 games at home (+17.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Aledmys Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 69% ROI)
Astros vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Astros vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -160 |
Astros vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Altuve | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Tucker | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Martin Maldonado | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
Astros vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -110 |
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 89-66 against the Run Line (+19.9 Units / 10.14% ROI).
- 71-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.01% ROI
- 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 2.42% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 84-71 against the Run Line (+13.7 Units / 7.44% ROI).
- 102-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.85 Units / 5.79% ROI
- 57-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.55 Units / -22.72% ROI
- 88-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.5 Units / 14.25% ROI
Zachary Gallen: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .182 (110-for-606) against Zac Gallen this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (11-for-73) against Zac Gallen on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .145 (43-for-297) against Zac Gallen this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .158 (40-for-253) against Zac Gallen’s fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .505 (621 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (161 Total Bases / 584 ABs) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .229 (620 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .188 (110-for-584) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Diamondbacks are just 121-23 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 110-35 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 11-34 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 32-181 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Astros are 44-5 (.898) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Astros are 41-14 (.745) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Astros are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .509 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .221 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .288 against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .289 (1,588 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 687 strikeouts in 3,851 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 307 strikeouts in 1,770 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 817 strikeouts in 4,511 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters are slugging .638 at home over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (26 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (670.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 1.96 (119.2 IP) on the road this month (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
Astros vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Ankle, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
- Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
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