Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Astros (102-53) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (71-84)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (12-3), 2.45 ERA
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (17-4), 1.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 71-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 84-71 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -145O 6.5 -115+155
Astros -1.5 +120U 6.5 -105-190

Diamondbacks vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Zac Gallen has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 40 of his last 71 games at home (+17.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.60 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Aledmys Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 69% ROI)

Astros vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Jose Altuve 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000

Astros vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Jeremy Pena 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jose Altuve 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Kyle Tucker 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +110 0.5 -160

Astros vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alex Bregman 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jeremy Pena 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jose Altuve 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Kyle Tucker 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Martin Maldonado 0.5 +300 0.5 -550

Astros vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Justin Verlander 6.5 -125 6.5 -110
Zac Gallen 5.5 -145 5.5 +100
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 games (+4.75 Units / 8% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 89-66 against the Run Line (+19.9 Units / 10.14% ROI).

  • 71-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -1.01% ROI
  • 69-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.85 Units / -11.68% ROI
  • 81-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 2.42% ROI

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 84-71 against the Run Line (+13.7 Units / 7.44% ROI).

  • 102-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.85 Units / 5.79% ROI
  • 57-88 when betting on the total runs Over for -38.55 Units / -22.72% ROI
  • 88-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +24.5 Units / 14.25% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .182 (110-for-606) against Zac Gallen this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .151 (11-for-73) against Zac Gallen on inside fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 98th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .145 (43-for-297) against Zac Gallen this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .234 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .158 (40-for-253) against Zac Gallen’s fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .505 (621 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed a slugging percentage of just .276 (161 Total Bases / 584 ABs) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: .400 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .229 (620 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .188 (110-for-584) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 97th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Diamondbacks are just 121-23 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 110-35 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 11-34 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 32-181 (.150) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Astros are 44-5 (.898) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Astros are 41-14 (.745) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Astros are 84-5 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Astros are 6-40 (.130) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .509 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .221 (332 PA’s) against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.

Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .288 against LHP this month (23 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .289 (1,588 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Astros hitters have just 687 strikeouts in 3,851 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 307 strikeouts in 1,770 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 817 strikeouts in 4,511 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters are slugging .638 at home over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Diamondbacks pitchers this month (26 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (670.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.87.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 1.96 (119.2 IP) on the road this month (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.

Astros vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
  • Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.