- The Blue Jays are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Kevin Gausman
- Watch the game on SNET
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-120) on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 52-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 41-51 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+9.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Dominic Fletcher has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+8.00 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+5.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Chris Bassitt has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+4.45 Units / 44% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jake McCarthy | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake McCarthy | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake McCarthy | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Chris Bassitt | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 89 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 91 games (+13.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.30 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 54-38 against the Run Line (+13.75 Units / 11.85% ROI).
- 52-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.8 Units / 11.04% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -8.73% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 0.85% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 41-51 against the Run Line (-13.65 Units / -11.98% ROI).
- 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.35 Units / -5.42% ROI
- 40-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -11.43% ROI
- 47-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 2.71% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (99/302) against Zac Gallen this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 93rd Percentile.
Zac Gallen has walked 23 of 472 batters (5%) this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 61% (328/535) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 12th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strikeout rate of 50% (125 SO in 250 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 90th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kevin Gausman allowed a batting average of just .091 vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .400 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (third worst among qualified SPs)– fourth Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has allowed a just .136 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth best)– 95th Percentile and .650 vs left-handed batters over the last two weeks (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .145 (10-for-69) against Kevin Gausman on low fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — 100th Percentile.
Kevin Gausman has located his fastball up for a strike 77% (634/829) of the time since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Diamondbacks are just 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-23 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-17 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 27-12 (.692) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Blue Jays are 23-29 (.442) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Blue Jays are 16-16 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Blue Jays are 57-80 (.416) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,448) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,633 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .378 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Blue Jays hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 1,922 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 129 strikeouts in 669 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have 42 extra-base hits out of 155 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Diamondbacks have won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 16 of 333 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 695 of 9,534 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Blue Jays pitchers over the last 14 days (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Side, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
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