- The Blue Jays are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi
- Watch the game on SNET
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-165) on Sunday, July 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:37pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 52-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 42-51 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -140 | O 9.5 -110 | +140 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +115 | U 9.5 -110 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 68.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+13.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 37 games (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+18.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 38 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Henry | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -160 |
| Yusei Kikuchi | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 away games (+14.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 90 games (+13.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 92 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 85 games (+8.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.90 Units / 56% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+4.70 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games at home (+2.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 54-39 against the Run Line (+11.75 Units / 9.95% ROI).
- 52-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.8 Units / 10.09% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -9.74% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.83% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 42-51 against the Run Line (-11.95 Units / -10.4% ROI).
- 52-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -4.65% ROI
- 40-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -12.43% ROI
- 48-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.75 Units / 3.66% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has allowed three-ball counts to 19% of batters they faced (76/392 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 10% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (16/83) against Tommy Henry with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 99th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has a strike rate of just 61% (171/278) when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 69% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 21% (18/86) against Tommy Henry on breaking pitches this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 97th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (104 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (59 Total Bases / 102 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .476 (30 Total Bases / 63 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 16th Percentile.
51% of Yusei Kikuchi’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 95th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Diamondbacks are just 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 27-12 (.692) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-17 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-23 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Blue Jays are 6-2 (.750) after a loss as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Blue Jays are 57-80 (.416) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Blue Jays are just 7-16 (.304) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Blue Jays are 4-32 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,483) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 516 strikeouts in 2,584 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting .378 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Blue Jays are batting .393 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Blue Jays hitters have just 1,607 strikeouts in 7,822 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The longest HR allowed by the Diamondbacks pitchers this season traveled 493.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 462.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 696 of 9,570 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.35 (395.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays): Shoulder, D15
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays): Side, Day-to-Day
- Chad Green (Blue Jays): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
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