- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 52-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 46-46 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | O 10.5 -115 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 10.5 -105 | -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 79.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+13.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 38 games (+10.25 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+10.45 Units / 53% ROI)
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Emmanuel Rivera | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Sean Murphy | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
| Bryce Elder | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 away games (+15.75 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+11.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 93 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 86 games (+7.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 92 games (+16.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+14.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 35 games (+14.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+12.50 Units / 53% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 54-40 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 8.66% ROI).
- 52-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.8 Units / 9.16% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.1 Units / -8.68% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.73% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-46 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.28% ROI).
- 61-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 7.66% ROI
- 49-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 4.83% ROI
- 40-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.9 Units / -13.77% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (1,125/1,747) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his pitches away 68% of the time (555/813) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 18% (43/239) against Zach Davies on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 63% of the time (330/525) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 65% (102/157) against Bryce Elder this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (176/314) against Bryce Elder this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Elder has a strikeout rate of just 36% (80 SO in 221 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (13/101) against Bryce Elder on breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-17 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-23 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Diamondbacks are 12-6 (.667) after a road loss this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 39-26 (.600) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 16-13 (.552) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Braves are 18-11 (.621) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Braves are 31-41 (.431) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/9,557) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .893 (805 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Braves hitters are slugging .539 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .829 (3,520 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Braves hitters are slugging .460 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The longest HR allowed by the Diamondbacks pitchers this season traveled 493.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 463.5
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Braves pitchers have won 51% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Eddie Rosario (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
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