- The Braves are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 53-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 46-47 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 +100 | O 10 -110 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 10 -110 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 80.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+14.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+12.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 39 games (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
| Ryne Nelson | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 37 away games (+16.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 94 games (+13.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 92 games (+12.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+7.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 87 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 93 games (+17.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 35 games (+15.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+15.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 36 games (+12.35 Units / 18% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 55-40 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 9.41% ROI).
- 53-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.4 Units / 10.43% ROI
- 43-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -7.65% ROI
- 46-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.34% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-47 against the Run Line (-2.45 Units / -2.22% ROI).
- 61-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.15 Units / 6.43% ROI
- 50-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.9 Units / 5.75% ROI
- 40-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -15 Units / -14.7% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of 1.658 (20 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .537 — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of 1.658 (20 PA’s) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .521 — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 16% (68 SO in 430 PAs) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .413 (81 Total Bases / 196 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .264 — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (429/882) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has allowed a slugging percentage of .652 (30 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — third Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 55% of the time (212/386) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 39% of the time (157/401) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 109-11 (.908) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-17 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 28-12 (.700) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Diamondbacks are 39-6 (.867) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 16-14 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Braves are 39-27 (.591) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 42-18 (.700) after a win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,654 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 13% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .890 (808 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Braves hitters are slugging .537 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .818 (2,446 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Braves hitters are slugging .461 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 3.48 (383.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
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