- The – are favorites vs the –
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Watch the game on BSSO
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Thursday, July 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 54-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 46-48 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 76.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+14.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+13.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 40 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 17 games at home (+14.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -115 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dominic Canzone | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Spencer Strider | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -120 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 38 away games (+17.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 95 games (+15.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 93 games (+13.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 away games (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 94 games (+16.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games (+14.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+13.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 56-40 against the Run Line (+12.35 Units / 10.16% ROI).
- 54-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.35 Units / 11.97% ROI
- 43-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.15 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 47-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.65 Units / 0.62% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-48 against the Run Line (-3.65 Units / -3.28% ROI).
- 61-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 50-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 4.68% ROI
- 41-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -14 Units / -13.57% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (eighth lowest)– 11th Percentile and 74% when behind in the count this season (fifth highest among qualified SPs)– 92nd Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a strikeout rate of 49% (130 SO in 265 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 87th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .353 (164 Total Bases / 465 ABs) this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .402 — 86th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .624 (494 PA’s) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .705 — 94th Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 39% (176 SO in 452 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 47% (82/174) against Spencer Strider on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 44% (255/576) against Spencer Strider in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 56% (186/333) against Spencer Strider on breaking pitches this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 100-17 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 110-11 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 93-23 (.802) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Diamondbacks are 40-6 (.870) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 39-27 (.591) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Braves are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 18-12 (.600) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Braves are 16-14 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (2,659 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 741 strikeouts in 3,657 PA’s (20%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters have an OPS of .886 (811 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Braves hitters are slugging .535 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Braves hitters are slugging .309 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Braves are batting .274 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks have won 50% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 23% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jesse Chavez (Braves): Shin, D15
- Dylan Lee (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Forearm, D60
- Samuel Hilliard (Braves): Heel, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Alex Minter (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Braves): Shoulder, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
