Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (59-41) are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (45-53)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-9), 3.70 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (12-4), 2.94 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 51-49 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -110O 9 -120+180
Braves -1.5 -110U 9 +100-225

Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 78.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 59 games (+26.80 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 42 of his last 59 games (+15.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 51 games (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 62 of his last 88 games (+21.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 57 games (+17.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 51 of his last 86 games (+15.10 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 51 of his last 88 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Matt Olson 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Michael Harris 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +160 1.5 -225
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Matt Olson 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Michael Harris 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Marcell Ozuna 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Matt Olson 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Michael Harris 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Wright 5.5 -110 5.5 -130
Madison Bumgarner 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 87 games (+15.80 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 76 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 74 games (+19.42 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.05 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 92 games (+5.60 Units / 5% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-41 against the Run Line (+13.1 Units / 10.27% ROI).

  • 45-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -2.08% ROI
  • 43-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -10.82% ROI
  • 50-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.7% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 51-49 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.55% ROI).

  • 59-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.24% ROI
  • 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 1.68% ROI
  • 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -10.2% ROI

27 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

58 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

58 of Madison Bumgarner’s 138 breaking pitch strikeouts (42%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has allowed a slugging percentage of .369 (80 Total Bases / 217 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — third Percentile.

Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (89/150) against Kyle Wright this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (51/161) against Kyle Wright on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.

Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (188/372) of the time this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.

Kyle Wright has a strike rate of just 61% (77/127) in late innings this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — fourth Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Diamondbacks are just 91-26 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 100-17 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-29 (.237) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 5-17 (.227) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 25-6 (.806) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 25-3 (.893) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .223 on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Braves hitters are slugging .690 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.

Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Braves hitters are slugging .439 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .754 (7,314 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.