- The Braves (59-41) are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (45-53)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (6-9), 3.70 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright (12-4), 2.94 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Friday, July 29, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 51-49 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -120 | +180 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 9 +100 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 78.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 59 games (+26.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 42 of his last 59 games (+15.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 43 of his last 62 games (+13.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 51 games (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 62 of his last 88 games (+21.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 57 games (+17.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 51 of his last 86 games (+15.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 51 of his last 88 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -225 |
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Wright | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -130 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 87 games (+15.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 76 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 74 games (+19.42 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 50 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.05 Units / 82% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 92 games (+5.60 Units / 5% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-41 against the Run Line (+13.1 Units / 10.27% ROI).
- 45-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -2.08% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -10.82% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.7% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 51-49 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.55% ROI).
- 59-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.24% ROI
- 51-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 1.68% ROI
- 45-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -10.2% ROI
Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
58 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
58 of Madison Bumgarner’s 138 breaking pitch strikeouts (42%) have been backdoor since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Madison Bumgarner has allowed a slugging percentage of .369 (80 Total Bases / 217 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .251 — third Percentile.
Kyle Wright: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (89/150) against Kyle Wright this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (51/161) against Kyle Wright on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 89th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 51% (188/372) of the time this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Kyle Wright has a strike rate of just 61% (77/127) in late innings this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — fourth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 91-26 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-17 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-29 (.237) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 5-17 (.227) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 6-2 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-6 (.806) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 25-3 (.893) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .223 on the road since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .690 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters are slugging .439 against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .754 (7,314 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
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