Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 30, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Braves (60-41) are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (45-54)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Corbin Martin (0-0), 3.92 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (8-6), 5.30 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSE

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Saturday, July 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 52-49 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 +100O 10 -115+180
Braves -1.5 -120U 10 -105-225

Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 36 of his last 60 games (+28.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 43 of his last 60 games (+16.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 44 of his last 63 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 52 games (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Carson Kelly has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.80 Units / 70% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 63 of his last 89 games (+22.65 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 58 games (+18.55 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 87 games (+16.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 52 of his last 89 games (+16.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 34% ROI)

Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Dansby Swanson 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Matt Olson 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Michael Harris 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Ronald Acuna 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Dansby Swanson 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Matt Olson 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Michael Harris 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Ronald Acuna 1.5 +160 1.5 -250

Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Riley 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Dansby Swanson 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Matt Olson 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Michael Harris 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ronald Acuna 0.5 -105 0.5 -135

Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ian Anderson 4.5 -110 4.5 -125
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 88 games (+14.70 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 77 games (+6.65 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.75 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 75 games (+20.42 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 51 games (+13.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 93 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-42 against the Run Line (+12 Units / 9.33% ROI).

  • 45-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.25 Units / -2.97% ROI
  • 43-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -11.69% ROI
  • 51-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 2.59% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 52-49 against the Run Line (-0.95 Units / -0.75% ROI).

  • 60-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.36% ROI
  • 51-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.72% ROI
  • 46-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.25 Units / -9.2% ROI

Corbin Martin has not allowed a home run in any of the last 18.2 innings he’s appeared — the longest active streak is 53.1.

Ian Anderson: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ian Anderson has allowed an OPS of 1.197 (89 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .755 — 0 Percentile.

Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1868.9 RPM on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 2515.2 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 52% (165/319) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (80/241) against Ian Anderson on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Diamondbacks are just 91-26 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 47-109 (.301) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Diamondbacks are just 100-17 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-29 (.237) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Braves are 26-20 (.565) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .478.

The Braves are 35-10 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.

The Braves are 53-13 (.803) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Braves are 26-3 (.897) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .179 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 36% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Braves hitters are slugging .690 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.

Braves hitters have 231 extra-base hits out of 557 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .303 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

Braves hitters are slugging .533 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.