- The Diamondbacks are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Monday, June 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 43-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 31-40 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -105 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -115 | -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 57.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 47 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+11.30 Units / 59% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 50 games (+10.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 40 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Merrill Kelly | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 69 games (+17.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 71 games (+16.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 away games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 away games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+6.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 44-28 against the Run Line (+15.8 Units / 17.63% ROI).
- 43-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.65 Units / 17.07% ROI
- 34-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.9 Units / -3.6% ROI
- 33-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -4.67% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 31-40 against the Run Line (-13.15 Units / -14.8% ROI).
- 37-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -2.48% ROI
- 29-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.4 Units / -18.31% ROI
- 39-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 9.09% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 81% (13/16) against Merrill Kelly — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 19 of 165 right-handed batters (12%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .157 (21-for-134) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .248 (30-for-121) against Merrill Kelly in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .329 — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (715/1,141) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 59% of the time (76/129) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 64% of the time (235/365) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (227/365) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 91-15 (.858) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are 20-11 (.645) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Diamondbacks are just 101-9 (.918) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 31-3 (.912) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Brewers are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Brewers are just 0-32 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .998 (153 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,515 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .214 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of just .300 (926 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Brewers pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Brewers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,229 times since last season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
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