- The Brewers are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-125) on Tuesday, June 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 44-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 31-41 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | O 9 +100 | +105 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -120 | -125 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 55.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+15.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+13.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+12.55 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+11.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 41 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 47 games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Colin Rea | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 70 games (+18.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 72 games (+17.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 24 away games (+12.50 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 65 games (+11.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 away games (+8.95 Units / 28% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 45-28 against the Run Line (+16.8 Units / 18.34% ROI).
- 44-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.65 Units / 17.96% ROI
- 35-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.33% ROI
- 33-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -5.88% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 31-41 against the Run Line (-14.15 Units / -15.75% ROI).
- 37-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.45 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 30-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -16.78% ROI
- 39-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.05 Units / 7.7% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 29% (46 SO in 161 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 7.89 (29.2 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.89 — first Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed an OPS of 1.021 (149 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .718 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .400 (10-for-25) against Ryne Nelson on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .253 — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed a slugging percentage of .667 (50 Total Bases / 75 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .439 — first Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of 1.080 (88 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .767 — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 55% (50/91) against Colin Rea this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (4-for-40) against Colin Rea on fastballs away this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 99th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are 9-2 (.818) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .458.
The Diamondbacks are just 102-9 (.919) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are 32-3 (.914) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 23-13 (.639) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 27-4 (.871) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
The Brewers are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Brewers are 5-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .314 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Diamondbacks are 10-1 (.909) against the run line (53.3% ROI) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .642 (683 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Brewers hitters have 636 strikeouts in 2,394 PA’s (27%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have 84 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
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