- The Brewers (86-75) are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (73-88)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (13-8), 3.42 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (12-8), 2.98 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 73-88 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 67-94 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | O 7 -120 | +140 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | U 7 +100 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 53 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.65 Units / 65% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Willy Adames | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Willy Adames | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Willy Adames | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -130 |
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 70% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 93-68 against the Run Line (+21.15 Units / 10.29% ROI).
- 73-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -1.89% ROI
- 73-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.05 Units / -10.21% ROI
- 83-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 1.07% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 67-94 against the Run Line (-35.35 Units / -18.21% ROI).
- 86-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.9 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 76-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.61% ROI
- 77-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -3.05% ROI
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .122 (45-for-369) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 95th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (18 Total Bases / 24 ABs) vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .365 — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 70% (591/839) in two strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 93rd Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 60% (340/564) of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — eighth Percentile.
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (167/234) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (151/234) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (315/528) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,128/1,688) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 62-129 (.325) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 46-34 (.575) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Brewers are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 15%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have 807 strikeouts in 3,243 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Ankle, D15
- Matthew Bush (Brewers): Illness. , D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
- Emmanuel Rivera (Diamondbacks): Wrist, D60
- Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
- Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
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