Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (86-75) are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (73-88)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (13-8), 3.42 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (12-8), 2.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-165) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 73-88 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 67-94 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -155O 7 -120+140
Brewers -1.5 +125U 7 +100-165

Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 68.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 53 games (+17.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+13.65 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.40 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 52 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.20 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games at home (+8.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Willy Adames 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Carson Kelly 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Willy Adames 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Carson Kelly 0.5 -125 0.5 -115

Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Willy Adames 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Carson Kelly 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Corbin Burnes 7.5 -110 7.5 -130
Merrill Kelly 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 70% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 93-68 against the Run Line (+21.15 Units / 10.29% ROI).

  • 73-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.4 Units / -1.89% ROI
  • 73-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.05 Units / -10.21% ROI
  • 83-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 1.07% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 67-94 against the Run Line (-35.35 Units / -18.21% ROI).

  • 86-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.9 Units / -8.56% ROI
  • 76-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -4.61% ROI
  • 77-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -3.05% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .122 (45-for-369) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 95th Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .750 (18 Total Bases / 24 ABs) vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .365 — first Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 70% (591/839) in two strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 93rd Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 60% (340/564) of opposing batters this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — eighth Percentile.

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 71% of the time (167/234) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (151/234) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (315/528) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 67% of the time (1,128/1,688) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 62-129 (.325) on the road since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .462.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Brewers are 46-34 (.575) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Brewers are just 61-13 (.824) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Brewers are just 9-34 (.209) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.

The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of 2020 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 15%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Brewers hitters have 807 strikeouts in 3,243 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Calf, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Matthew Bush (Brewers): Illness. , D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Toe, D15
  • Emmanuel Rivera (Diamondbacks): Wrist, D60
  • Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): Arm, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Undisclosed, D10
  • Kyle Nelson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.