- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-135) on Sunday, September 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 0-0 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -105 | +110 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -115 | -135 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+14.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+12.20 Units / 68% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.40 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 28 of his last 47 games (+20.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 35 games (+14.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 away games (+9.77 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 away games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.53 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.13 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.63 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.11 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+7.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.73 Units / 24% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (22/77) against Brandon Pfaadt over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .578 (85 Total Bases / 147 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: .429 — sixth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (12/50) against Brandon Pfaadt when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 39% — second Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (36/116) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has thrown his changeup 64% of the time (312/486) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.2 MPH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 69% of the time (334/486) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are 18-115 (.135) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 18-25 (.419) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 3-129 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Cubs are just 32-42 (.432) after a home loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Cubs are 41-7 (.854) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .681 (3,188 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .237 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have been successful in 94% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Cubs are batting just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .875 (284 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 15 of 115 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Cubs pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs pitchers have walked 86 of 1,271 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 5 of 127 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.56 (126.1 IP) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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