- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Cubs starting pitcher: Javier Assad
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Thursday, September 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 71-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 73-67 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -115 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -105 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 71.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+14.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.40 Units / 79% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+20.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 32 games (+15.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 48 games (+15.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.45 Units / 24% ROI)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Assad | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
| Ryne Nelson | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 59 away games (+9.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 59 away games (+8.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.34 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 33 games (+8.13 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+16.73 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.21 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+9.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 58 games at home (+7.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 75-63 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 2.84% ROI).
- 71-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.85 Units / 2.86% ROI
- 60-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.45 Units / -12.6% ROI
- 71-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.3 Units / 4.22% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 73-67 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 1.84% ROI).
- 76-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 4.02% ROI
- 71-63 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.58% ROI
- 63-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.6 Units / -9.61% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .655 (144 Total Bases / 220 ABs) at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (80-for-220) against Ryne Nelson at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 8.59 (51.1 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 4.20 — 0 Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 31% (82 SO in 261 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Javier Assad has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (127/245) of opposing batters this season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (19/106) against Javier Assad on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 29% (51/176) against Javier Assad on low breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 22% (40/184) against Javier Assad this season — 6th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 28% — seventh Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 110-21 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 125-13 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 52-36 (.591) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs were just 19-11 (.633) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs are 41-7 (.854) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Cubs are 17-13 (.567) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Cubs are just 3-127 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.8 MPH (3,535 batted balls) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 382 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 84 of 1,243 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (3,473 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cubs pitchers over the last 14 days (14 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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