- The Cubs are -145 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Saturday, September 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Diamondbacks vs Cubs Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 73-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 74-68 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | O 7 +100 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -120 | -145 |
Diamondbacks vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 64.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+15.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.00 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+18.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+16.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 28 games (+16.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+16.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 34 games (+15.75 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 61 away games (+9.77 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 away games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+8.53 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.13 Units / 20% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games (+14.63 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+9.11 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+7.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+7.73 Units / 24% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 76-64 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 2.8% ROI).
- 73-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 4.22% ROI
- 60-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.7 Units / -13.85% ROI
- 73-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.3 Units / 5.48% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 74-68 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 1.82% ROI).
- 76-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 2.46% ROI
- 71-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -0.86% ROI
- 65-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -8.18% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
81% of Merrill Kelly’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 68% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .224 (121-for-539) against Merrill Kelly this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — 83rd Percentile.
Hitters have chased 270 of Merrill Kelly’s 632 off-speed pitches out of the zone (43%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 53 of 600 batters (9%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 16th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (293/623) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (293/623) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,013/2,334) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (187/405) when behind in the count this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 103-25 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Cubs are just 3-129 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Cubs are just 32-41 (.438) after a home loss since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Cubs are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 29-32 (.475) after a loss as favorites since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 811 strikeouts in 3,887 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,318) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,162 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .312 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .265 (2,975 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cubs hitters have just 22 strikeouts in 145 PA’s (15%) against LHP over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .218 against Cubs pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Cubs pitchers have walked 86 of 1,261 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 2.87 (125.1 IP) over the last 14 days (14 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.63.
The longest HR allowed by the Cubs pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.4
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Fulmer (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Rib, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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