- The Guardians are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Guardians TV Channel: FOX
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on August 1, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 57-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 53-56 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kohl Drake 0-0, 5.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Parker Messick 8-6, 2.61 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -118 | +135 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -102 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 111% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+14.00 Units / 350% ROI)
- Parker Messick has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.89 Units / 19% ROI)
- Parker Messick has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+5.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Patrick Bailey has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 57-48 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.24% ROI).
- 57-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 4.64% ROI
- 46-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -13.67% ROI
- 57-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.95 Units / 5.81% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 53-56 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -4.68% ROI).
- 56-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 51-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.35 Units / -11.12% ROI
- 59-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 1.84% ROI
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Ketel Marte | +375 |
| Rhys Hoskins | +380 |
| Jose Ramirez | +390 |
| Corbin Carroll | +450 |
| Chase DeLauter | +475 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Angel Martinez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Waldschmidt | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gabriel Moreno | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are 24-13 (.649) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Guardians (30th in runs scored).
The Diamondbacks are 27-16 (.628) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Guardians (eighth runs allowed).
The Diamondbacks are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.
The Diamondbacks are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — tied for best in MLB.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 4th best in MLB.
The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
The Guardians are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
The Guardians are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .677 (3,056 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .265 (462 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.
The Guardians are batting just .193 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.
The Guardians are batting just .216 on the road this season — lowest in MLB.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .292 (2,125 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% in the first 5 innings this season — tied for lowest in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have won 33% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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