- The Diamondbacks are +140 favorites vs the Guardians
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie, 0.00 ERA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on Sunday, March 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at +1.5 (-150).
The Diamondbacks vs Guardians Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Diamondbacks are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 3-2 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 | +140 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Hager has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+2.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jake Hager has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+1.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Buddy Kennedy has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+0.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jake Hager has hit the Runs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+0.50 Units / 7% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Lavastida has hit the Singles Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 84 games (+41.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 69 of their last 151 games (+34.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 151 games (+24.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+10.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 69 games (+8.20 Units / 11% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 150 games (+26.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+9.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 150 games (+8.90 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 73 games at home (+6.75 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+5.96 Units / 9% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -24.62% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -41.9% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -24.78% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 15.89% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 22.31% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 22.13% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -4.46% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -2.78% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
65 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of the 2021 season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
65 of Madison Bumgarner’s 156 breaking pitch strikeouts (42%) have been backdoor since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
34 of Madison Bumgarner’s 73 breaking pitch strikeouts (47%) were backdoor last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
34 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie allowed a slugging percentage of .576 (53 Total Bases / 92 ABs) with runners in scoring position last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (170/502) against Triston McKenzie last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .481 (13 GB hits out of 27 GBs) against Triston McKenzie with runners in scoring position last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (62/190) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are just 122-24 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 33-184 (.152) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 52-7 (.881) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Guardians are 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Diamondbacks hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OPS of just .655 (1,689 PA’s) against LHP last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .343 against LHP last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters had 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of the 2021 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers walked 88 of 1,460 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers walked 435 of 5,989 batters (7%) last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .225 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
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