- The Marlins are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Friday, April 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 8-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 5-8 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -115 | +140 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +115 | U 9 -105 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 82% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Soler has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 82% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 12 games (+6.05 Units / 50% ROI)
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Garrett Cooper | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yuli Gurriel | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.40 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.45 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 9-4 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 30.4% ROI).
- 8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.25 Units / 44.96% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 9.28% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -18.02% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 5-8 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -33.07% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -4.56% ROI
- 6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -5.23% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
36 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
34 of Madison Bumgarner’s 73 breaking pitch strikeouts (47%) were backdoor in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
67 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the 2021 season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 134 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
34 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers allowed three-ball counts to 34.2% of batters they faced (38/111 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: 19.8% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (157/520) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 33% of the time (14/43) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 15% (7/47) against Trevor Rogers on curveballs in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Diamondbacks are just 105-23 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 96-33 (.744) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Marlins are just 107-18 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Marlins are just 119-75 (.613) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Marlins were just 51-14 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Marlins are just 10-36 (.217) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put 42% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Diamondbacks are just 105-23 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
Diamondbacks hitters have drawn 18 walks in 325 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have used a defensive shift against the Diamondbacks on 59% of their plate appearances this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.. *
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .634 (3,096 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters have 851 strikeouts in 3,096 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .608 (1,400 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Steven Okert (Marlins): Adductor, D15
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Jon Chargois (Marlins): Oblique, D15
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
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