- The Mets are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Mets starting pitcher: José Quintana
- Watch the game on SNY
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-130) on Monday, September 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Diamondbacks vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 74-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 59-82 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -110 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -110 | -130 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 63.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+11.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.10 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+12.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.40 Units / 79% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 51% ROI)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Zach Davies | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.53 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 63 away games (+8.77 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.29 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.88 Units / 18% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 48 games at home (+10.43 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games at home (+9.47 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games at home (+5.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.13 Units / 26% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 77-65 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 74-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.45 Units / 4.28% ROI
- 60-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.1 Units / -15.15% ROI
- 75-60 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.3 Units / 6.71% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 59-82 against the Run Line (-33.75 Units / -18.91% ROI).
- 64-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.1 Units / -16.71% ROI
- 57-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.2 Units / -18.91% ROI
- 78-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.35 Units / 9.99% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (1,223/1,917) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Zach Davies’ pitches (511/1,266) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 21% (191/897) against Zach Davies on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has a strike rate of just 58% (739/1,266) this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has induced opposing hitters to ground into 31 double plays in 167 opportunities (19%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown his changeup for a strike just 52% (352/680) of the time since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 61% — fifth Percentile.
Jose Quintana has thrown his curveball 26% of the time (195/763) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 93rd Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 62% (1,869/3,011) against right-handed batters since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 65% — ninth Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Diamondbacks are 11-6 (.647) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 5-36 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 6-115 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,391) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 814 strikeouts in 3,901 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (8,000 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .328 (5,987 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (3,629 batted balls) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Francisco Alvarez (Mets): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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