- The Diamondbacks are -105 favorites vs the Mets
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson
- Mets starting pitcher: José Butto
- Watch the game on SNY
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-115) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Diamondbacks vs Mets Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 76-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 60-83 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +150 | O 9.5 -110 | -105 |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | U 9.5 -110 | -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+12.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+10.15 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+16.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 50 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Butto | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
| Ryne Nelson | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games (+17.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.53 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 away games (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 71 away games (+8.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 64 away games (+7.77 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 66 games at home (+21.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games at home (+11.43 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+10.47 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-66 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 2.57% ROI).
- 76-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 3.53% ROI
- 61-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.35 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 77-61 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.25 Units / 7.18% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 60-83 against the Run Line (-33.4 Units / -18.51% ROI).
- 65-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.4 Units / -17.07% ROI
- 57-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.55 Units / -20.63% ROI
- 81-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.35 Units / 11.69% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 6.80 (46.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 4.34 — third Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 21% (26 SO in 126 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 33% — eighth Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 32% (85 SO in 270 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .436 (109 Total Bases / 250 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .313 — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Butto had a first-pitch strike rate of just 48% (12/25) — tied for 5th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are 19-116 (.141) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 12-25 (.324) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 307 strikeouts in 1,524 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .681 (3,213 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting just .236 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .346 (1,394 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Mets are batting just .231 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 120 of 1,252 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 534 of 5,410 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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