- The Diamondbacks are -150 favorites vs the Mets
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Mets starting pitcher: Joseph Lucchesi
- Watch the game on SNY
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+125) on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Diamondbacks vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 76-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 61-83 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | -150 |
| Mets | +1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | +125 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 69.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 31 games (+13.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.95 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Brett Baty has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 59% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Omar Narvaez | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +115 |
| Joey Lucchesi | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.53 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+8.29 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 72 away games (+7.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 65 away games (+6.77 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games at home (+19.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+12.43 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+9.32 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-67 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 2.03% ROI).
- 76-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 2.96% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.35 Units / -14.9% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 6.36% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 61-83 against the Run Line (-32.4 Units / -17.78% ROI).
- 66-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.4 Units / -16.44% ROI
- 58-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.55 Units / -19.87% ROI
- 81-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 10.84% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed an OBP of just .189 (391 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 93rd Percentile.
79% of Zac Gallen’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (23/38) against Zac Gallen — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .376 (391 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .495 — 97th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Diamondbacks are just 111-21 (.841) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 127-13 (.907) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Diamondbacks are just 31-14 (.689) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Diamondbacks were just 57-12 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Mets are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 12-25 (.324) after a road loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Mets are 143-9 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,467) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 3,992 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,213 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .546 (2,859 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .523.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 727 strikeouts in 3,506 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting just .237 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .744 (8,099 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 14 of 98 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 122 of 1,261 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 541 of 5,450 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat Strain, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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