- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on SNY
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Thursday, September 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Diamondbacks vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 76-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 62-83 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -210 | O 7 +100 | +100 |
| Mets | -1.5 +170 | U 7 -120 | -120 |
Diamondbacks vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Mets and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+14.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+12.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- Evan Longoria has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 37 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+11.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+11.50 Units / 32% ROI)
Mets vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ Stewart | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Merrill Kelly | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+16.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+13.53 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.29 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 away games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 66 away games (+5.22 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games at home (+19.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 51 games at home (+13.78 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+7.92 Units / 13% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-68 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 1.49% ROI).
- 76-71 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.35 Units / -14.8% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.05 Units / 6.32% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 62-83 against the Run Line (-31.4 Units / -17.11% ROI).
- 67-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -30 Units / -15.63% ROI
- 58-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.55 Units / -19.74% ROI
- 81-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.15 Units / 10.77% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (364/629) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .109 (31-for-285) against Kodai Senga with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 98th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed three-ball counts to 25% of batters they faced (158/626 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 0 Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 70 of 626 batters (11%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
keys to the game – away
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Mets are just 2-64 (.030) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Mets are just 5-37 (.119) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Mets are 144-2 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 6-115 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/11,507) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have been successful on 71% of their hit & run attempts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Mets are batting just .238 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
The Mets are batting just .234 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .350 (1,406 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 545 of 5,486 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Ronny Mauricio (Mets): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraines, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Finger, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Lat, D15
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D60
- Joshua Walker (Mets): Oblique, D60
- Dominic Fletcher (Diamondbacks): Finger, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
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