- The – are favorites vs the –
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Watch the game on MASN
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Thursday, June 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Diamondbacks vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 45-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 41-32 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 72.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+12.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Victor Robles has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Victor Robles has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.45 Units / 50% ROI)
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Tommy Henry | 4.5 +135 | 4.5 -175 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 74 games (+17.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 72 games (+17.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 26 away games (+14.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 67 games (+11.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 26 away games (+8.25 Units / 24% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 67 games (+8.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 62 games (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 55 games (+3.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 46-29 against the Run Line (+16.1 Units / 17.06% ROI).
- 45-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.65 Units / 17.49% ROI
- 36-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.27% ROI
- 34-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -5.72% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 41-32 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 5.25% ROI).
- 28-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -2.17% ROI
- 33-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.55 Units / -8.11% ROI
- 36-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 0.44% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 19% (12/64) against Tommy Henry with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 17% (11/65) against Tommy Henry on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (23/102) against Tommy Henry on non-fastballs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 99th Percentile.
Tommy Henry has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.4 MPH (177 batted balls) this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 89.3 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 22 of 166 batters (13%) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 13% (35/272) against Jake Irvin this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 18% (17/96) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (61/123) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are 10-2 (.833) after a road loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .456.
The Diamondbacks are just 103-9 (.920) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 26-12 (.684) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Diamondbacks are just 93-15 (.861) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .597.
The Nationals are just 13-25 (.342) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Nationals are just 27-130 (.172) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,522 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .523 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Diamondbacks are batting .197 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .784 (905 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 336 strikeouts in 1,813 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,160 strikeouts in 5,864 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 121 extra-base hits out of 421 total hits (just 29%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks have won 58% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
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