- The – are favorites vs the –
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN2
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals () on Thursday, June 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Washington.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Diamondbacks vs Nationals Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 37-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 35-26 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Nationals | U |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.15 Units / 66% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.55 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+15.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 games at home (+10.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Pavin Smith | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 54 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 38% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 43 games (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 37-25 against the Run Line (+12.25 Units / 16.01% ROI).
- 37-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.95 Units / 17.75% ROI
- 29-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -6.41% ROI
- 30-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -1.64% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-26 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 7.46% ROI).
- 25-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 3.15% ROI
- 28-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 29-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -1.94% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .194 (48-for-248) against Merrill Kelly this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 92nd Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .230 (26 Total Bases / 113 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .361 — 98th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has an ERA of 1.63 (27.2 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.13 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .180 (23-for-128) against Merrill Kelly this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — 87th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a .477 SLG vs right-handed batters (eighth worst)– 13th Percentile and just .301 vs left-handed batters this season (eighth best among qualified SPs)– 87th Percentile.
13 of Josiah Gray’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
13 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 2nd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (33/92) against Josiah Gray on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 97th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 86-15 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Diamondbacks are 8-2 (.800) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Diamondbacks are just 95-9 (.913) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .953.
The Diamondbacks are 27-2 (.931) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Nationals are just 25-122 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 12-20 (.375) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Nationals are just 38-75 (.336) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,392 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (185/8,299) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 4%.
The Diamondbacks are 9-1 (.900) against the run line (54.0% ROI) after a road loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Diamondbacks are batting .197 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 104 walks in 1,541 PA’s (7%) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 133 strikeouts in 764 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 530 strikeouts in 2,711 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 72% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Anthony Misiewicz (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, D15
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks): Groin, Day-to-Day
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D60
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