- The Padres are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 2-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 2-3 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -120 | +125 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 +100 | -150 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 61.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Carson Kelly has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.50 Units / 112% ROI)
- Austin Nola has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+4.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matthew Batten has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.75 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 12 games (+2.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| David Dahl | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| David Dahl | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| David Dahl | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +110 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 99 of their last 167 games (+31.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 167 games (+26.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 97 of their last 167 games (+22.65 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 167 games (+1.80 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 163 games (+1.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games at home (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 90 games at home (+3.35 Units / 3% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in their last 1 games (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 3-2 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 7.58% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.25 Units / 5% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 10.34% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -20.75% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -19.23% ROI).
- 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -11.88% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 14.04% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -21.5% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .135 (23-for-171) against Zac Gallen when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 100th Percentile.
Zac Gallen allowed an OBP of just .252 (713 PA’s) in 2022 — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 93rd Percentile.
Zac Gallen allowed a BABIP of .186 vs left-handed batters in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .279 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .121 (47-for-388) against Zac Gallen with two-strikes in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — 97th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (11/94) against Yu Darvish on inside fastballs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .156 (67-for-429) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .092 (9-for-98) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastballs in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .224 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish allowed an OBP of just .180 (228 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .269 — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 101-23 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are just 92-33 (.736) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .872.
The Diamondbacks are just 111-36 (.755) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-10 (.915) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 139-11 (.927) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Padres were just 3-58 (.049) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Padres were 45-36 (.556) on the road in 2022 — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres were 21-2 (.913) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are just 101-23 (.815) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .218 with two outs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Diamondbacks hitters had an OPS of just .655 (1,689 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .382 against LHP since the 2021 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters have just 743 strikeouts in 3,598 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 36% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 30 days of the regular season (33 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 42% against Padres pitchers in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Padres pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road in 2022 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Adam Engel (Padres): Hamstring, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Toe, D15
- Joseph Mantiply (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
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