- The Diamondbacks are -110 favorites vs the Padres
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen
- Padres starting pitcher: Richard Hill
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-110) on Thursday, August 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 60-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-62 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -115 | -110 |
| Padres | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -105 | -110 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 53.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games (+12.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 36 games (+19.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+17.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+15.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+14.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 33 games (+14.65 Units / 28% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rich Hill | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Zac Gallen | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 52 away games (+11.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 away games (+5.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 53 away games (+2.94 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 114 games (+14.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 111 games (+10.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+8.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 games (+6.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 65-54 against the Run Line (+4.45 Units / 2.93% ROI).
- 60-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.79% ROI
- 50-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.25 Units / -14.46% ROI
- 62-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.25 Units / 6.4% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-62 against the Run Line (-8.4 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 58-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.8 Units / -16.13% ROI
- 48-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.45 Units / -17.43% ROI
- 64-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.6 Units / 8.78% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
starting pitcher – away
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rich Hill has a strike rate of 65% when ahead in the count (ninth highest)– 87th Percentile and 65% when behind in the count this season (fifth lowest among qualified SPs)– ninth Percentile.
Rich Hill has averaged 87.9 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — second Percentile.
Rich Hill has averaged 71.3 MPH on curveballs since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 79.4 — third Percentile.
Rich Hill has averaged 88.1 MPH on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
keys to the game – away
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
keys to the game – home
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/10,452) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
The Diamondbacks are just 114-12 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks have hit 1,449 balls in play with an exit velocity over 100 MPH since last season — 4th fewest in MLB.
The Diamondbacks have 184 barreled balls since last season — fewest in MLB.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Games involving the Padres went UNDER in 89% of their games (71.8% ROI) after a win as underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have scored first in 55% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed 342 barreled balls since last season — 4th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 755 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,240 times this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,850 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 617 times this season — fewest in MLB.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 29% of the time after an opposing score this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Knee, D15
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Evan Longoria (Diamondbacks): Back, D10
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
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