- The Padres are -160 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+135) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Friday, August 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 61-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-63 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -160 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 42 games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.20 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+17.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 38 games (+16.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 34 games (+16.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+15.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+14.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 53 away games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 53 away games (+6.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 54 away games (+3.99 Units / 6% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 115 games (+15.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 112 games (+11.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games at home (+7.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 66-54 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 3.54% ROI).
- 61-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 2.47% ROI
- 50-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.4 Units / -15.19% ROI
- 63-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.25 Units / 7.12% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 59-63 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -6.31% ROI).
- 58-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -30 Units / -16.69% ROI
- 48-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.6 Units / -18.13% ROI
- 65-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.6 Units / 9.47% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .575 (127 Total Bases / 221 ABs) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .423 — second Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .660 (33 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .405 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 58% (22/38) against Brandon Pfaadt on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of .924 (244 PA’s) this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .738 — fifth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (359/864) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3233.7 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 2528.3 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (571/1,306) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 102-20 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-12 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 29-14 (.674) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are 18-31 (.367) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 1-5 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 2-8 (.200) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .437.
The Padres are just 2-6 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 10-55 (.154) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (184/10,569) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Padres are batting .252 with two outs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,929 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (Diamondbacks): Hip, Day-to-Day
- Evan Longoria (Diamondbacks): Back, D10
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
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