- The Padres are -175 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Padres starting pitcher: –
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+145) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-175) on Saturday, August 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 61-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 60-63 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -110 | +145 |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -110 | -175 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 52.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Ahmed has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 away games (+10.60 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 38 games (+18.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+18.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 39 games (+17.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+16.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.50 Units / 38% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.29 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.68 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 54 away games (+6.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 55 away games (+4.99 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 116 games (+16.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 69 games (+5.10 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.53 Units / 25% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 66-55 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 2.57% ROI).
- 61-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 1.77% ROI
- 50-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.6 Units / -15.94% ROI
- 64-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.25 Units / 7.83% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 60-63 against the Run Line (-8.15 Units / -5.44% ROI).
- 59-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -29 Units / -15.99% ROI
- 48-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.8 Units / -18.85% ROI
- 66-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.6 Units / 10.14% ROI
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (86/137) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .178 (35-for-197) against Merrill Kelly’s non-fastballs this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 91st Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of .586 (34 Total Bases / 58 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .402 — seventh Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has an ERA of 3.05 (124.0 IP)this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.93 — 93rd Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has a strike rate of 81% (66/81) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a just .278 SLG vs right-handed batters (sixth best)– 93rd Percentile and .607 vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (fourth worst among qualified SPs)– sixth Percentile.
Yu Darvish had a strike rate of 81% (66/81) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .250 (10 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .402 — 92nd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 116-12 (.906) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 102-20 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.
The Diamondbacks are just 29-14 (.674) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 13-18 (.419) after a home loss this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 2-8 (.200) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Padres are just 2-5 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-6 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Padres are just 3-50 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have just 258 strikeouts in 1,267 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .682 (2,956 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 371 walks in 3,344 PA’s (11%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The longest HR allowed by the Diamondbacks pitchers this season traveled 493.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 464.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (2,929 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 37% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Padres have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Ji Man Choi (Padres): Rib, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D15
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Evan Longoria (Diamondbacks): Back, D10
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
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