Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (50-41) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (39-50)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (5-8), 3.64 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (7-4), 3.37 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Friday, July 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 43-48 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -140O 7.5 -120+155
Padres -1.5 +115U 7.5 +100-190

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 56.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Seth Beer has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Seth Beer has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 away games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Seth Beer has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+7.00 Units / 99% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.85 Units / 99% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.55 Units / 55% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +125 0.5 -175

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
Madison Bumgarner 4.5 +105 4.5 -150
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 67 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 away games (+4.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+2.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 90 games (+0.20 Units / 0% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 50-39 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 6% ROI).

  • 39-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -6.14% ROI
  • 40-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -10.47% ROI
  • 46-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 1.32% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 43-48 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -4.84% ROI).

  • 50-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.96% ROI
  • 41-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -11.32% ROI
  • 48-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 2.67% ROI

22 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

53 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Madison Bumgarner has allowed a slugging percentage of .398 (76 Total Bases / 191 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .241 (46-for-191) against Madison Bumgarner with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — first Percentile.

Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .080 (4 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .102 (5-for-49) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .224 (11 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 96th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .100 (12-for-120) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 86-25 (.775) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 94-17 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 46-106 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-28 (.243) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are 41-11 (.788) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

The Padres are 6-28 (.176) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 31% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .196 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .177 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters are slugging .251 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .217.

The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.8

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers this month (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Jurickson Profar (Padres): Concussion, D7
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.