- The Padres (50-41) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (39-50)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Madison Bumgarner (5-8), 3.64 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (7-4), 3.37 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Friday, July 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 43-48 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -120 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 +100 | -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s matchup with 56.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Seth Beer has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Seth Beer has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 away games (+7.65 Units / 127% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Seth Beer has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+7.00 Units / 99% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.85 Units / 99% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.55 Units / 55% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 67 games (+7.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 away games (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 36 away games (+4.55 Units / 12% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 66 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+6.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+2.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 90 games (+0.20 Units / 0% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 50-39 against the Run Line (+7 Units / 6% ROI).
- 39-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -6.14% ROI
- 40-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -10.47% ROI
- 46-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 1.32% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 43-48 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -4.84% ROI).
- 50-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -0.96% ROI
- 41-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.25 Units / -11.32% ROI
- 48-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.7 Units / 2.67% ROI
Madison Bumgarner: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
22 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
53 of Madison Bumgarner’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Madison Bumgarner has allowed a slugging percentage of .398 (76 Total Bases / 191 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .241 (46-for-191) against Madison Bumgarner with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — first Percentile.
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .080 (4 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .102 (5-for-49) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .224 (11 Total Bases / 49 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .368 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .100 (12-for-120) against Yu Darvish’s elevated fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 86-25 (.775) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 94-17 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 46-106 (.303) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-28 (.243) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are 41-11 (.788) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
The Padres are 6-28 (.176) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 31% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .196 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .177 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters are slugging .251 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Padres are batting just .235 at home since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 456.8
The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers this month (13 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 0% of the time at home this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Jurickson Profar (Padres): Concussion, D7
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
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