Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (51-41) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (39-51)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Tyler Gilbert (0-3), 5.32 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (4-4), 4.08 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 44-48 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -130O 8 -115+155
Padres -1.5 +105U 8 -105-190

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 51 games (+27.15 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 39 of his last 54 games (+16.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 games (+13.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+14.25 Units / 102% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +375 0.5 -650

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Esteury Ruiz 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sean Manaea 5.5 -110 5.5 -130
Tyler Gilbert 3.5 +100 3.5 -145
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+8.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 68 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 67 games (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 57 games (+4.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.15 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 91 games (+1.20 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 50-40 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 4.87% ROI).

  • 39-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -7.09% ROI
  • 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -9.34% ROI
  • 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.1% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 44-48 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -3.87% ROI).

  • 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
  • 42-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -10.21% ROI
  • 48-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.46% ROI

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 16% (3/19) against Tyler Gilbert — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.

Tyler Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .125 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .282 — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed batters batted just .067 (1-for-15) against Tyler Gilbert — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .226 — 98th Percentile.

Tyler Gilbert allowed a slugging percentage of just .067 (1 Total Bases / 15 ABs) against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .327 — 100th Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (17 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 77% (20/26) against Sean Manaea against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.

Sean Manaea has walked 14 of 113 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .361 (13-for-36) against Sean Manaea on low fastballs this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 19th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 86-25 (.775) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 94-17 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-28 (.243) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are 17-4 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The Padres are just 41-5 (.891) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Padres are 42-11 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 31% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .179 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters are slugging just .337 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.

The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,334 of their 4,043 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Padres are batting .356 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3

Padres pitchers have walked 49 of 827 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.