- The Padres (51-41) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (39-51)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Tyler Gilbert (0-3), 5.32 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (4-4), 4.08 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 44-48 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -130 | O 8 -115 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -105 | -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 51 games (+27.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 39 of his last 54 games (+16.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 36 of his last 51 games (+13.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+14.25 Units / 102% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Hosmer | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jorge Alfaro | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -130 |
| Tyler Gilbert | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 79 games (+8.45 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 68 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 67 games (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 57 games (+4.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 91 games (+1.20 Units / 1% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 50-40 against the Run Line (+5.75 Units / 4.87% ROI).
- 39-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -7 Units / -7.09% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -9.34% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.1 Units / 0.1% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 44-48 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -3.87% ROI).
- 51-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -10.21% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.46% ROI
Tyler Gilbert: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 16% (3/19) against Tyler Gilbert — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Tyler Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .125 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .282 — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted just .067 (1-for-15) against Tyler Gilbert — tied for 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .226 — 98th Percentile.
Tyler Gilbert allowed a slugging percentage of just .067 (1 Total Bases / 15 ABs) against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .327 — 100th Percentile.
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .168 (17 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 77% (20/26) against Sean Manaea against right-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 14 of 113 batters (12%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .361 (13-for-36) against Sean Manaea on low fastballs this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .271 — 19th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 86-25 (.775) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 94-17 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Diamondbacks are just 9-28 (.243) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are 17-4 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
The Padres are just 41-5 (.891) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Padres are 42-11 (.792) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .190 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Diamondbacks have scored first in just 31% of their home games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .179 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging just .337 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
The Padres are batting just .223 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,334 of their 4,043 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Padres are batting .356 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3
Padres pitchers have walked 49 of 827 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
- Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
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