Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (52-41) are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (39-52)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (8-5), 3.36 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Michael Clevinger (2-2), 3.79 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-155) on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 39-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 44-49 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -160O 7.5 -115+130
Padres -1.5 +135U 7.5 -105-155

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 52 games (+26.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 39 of his last 55 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 52 games (+14.20 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.25 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+12.40 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 59% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jurickson Profar 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Eric Hosmer 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jurickson Profar 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mike Clevinger 5.5 +115 5.5 -160
Merrill Kelly 3.5 -175 3.5 +125
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 80 games (+9.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 36 of their last 69 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 away games (+6.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 away games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 68 games (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+6.55 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 92 games (+2.20 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 51-40 against the Run Line (+6.75 Units / 5.66% ROI).

  • 39-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -8.02% ROI
  • 41-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -10.3% ROI
  • 47-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.09% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 44-49 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -4.71% ROI).

  • 52-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 0.62% ROI
  • 42-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.3 Units / -11.14% ROI
  • 49-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.41% ROI

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (56/298) against Merrill Kelly this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 11th Percentile.

Merrill Kelly has a strike rate of 67% when ahead in the count (seventh highest)– 90th Percentile and 66% when behind in the count this season (ninth lowest among qualified SPs)– 13th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .154 (8-for-52) against Merrill Kelly’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 88th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (26/131) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 16th Percentile.

Michael Clevinger: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Mike Clevinger has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last three games dating back to June 29th — the longest active streak is 5.

Mike Clevinger allowed an OBP of just .200 (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — tied for 6th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .292 — 91st Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (4/18) against Mike Clevinger this month (2 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.

Mike Clevinger has allowed a slugging percentage of .727 (16 Total Bases / 22 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .386 — fifth Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 86-25 (.775) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 94-17 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are 17-5 (.773) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Diamondbacks are just 22-26 (.458) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 14-4 (.778) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .708.

The Padres are 6-28 (.176) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Padres are 27-21 (.562) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Padres are 43-11 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .703.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .220 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .198 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

The Padres are batting .356 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Padres hitters have put 38% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Padres hitters have an OPS of .731 (1,910 PA’s) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Padres pitchers have walked 50 of 836 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 457.3

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have won just just 10% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Ian Kennedy (Diamondbacks): Calf, D15
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.