• The Diamondbacks are -105 favorites vs the Padres
• Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: FS1 | DBTV | PDTV

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-115) on July 6, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in San Diego, CA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 1-1, 5.40 ERA
• Padres starting pitcher: Walker Buehler 5-4, 4.67 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Padres and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+15.30 Units / 153% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+14.30 Units / 49% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.85 Units / 46% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Adrian Del Castillo has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.50 Units / 50% ROI)
• Ty France has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+11.90 Units / 119% ROI)
• Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+10.65 Units / 29% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+11.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.05 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.20 Units / 38% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+6.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+5.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+3.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.25 Units / 41% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).

• home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
• home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
• home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .861.

The Diamondbacks are 22-9 (.710) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Padres (30th in runs scored).

The Diamondbacks are 38-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.

The Diamondbacks are just 91-24 (.791) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .901.

The Padres are 34-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.

The Padres are 4-42 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .054.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .293 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB.

9% of Diamondbacks’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (303/3,309 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Hitting Stats & Trends

Padres hitters have an OPS of just .651 (1,581 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .352 at home this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres hitters are slugging just .373 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Padres are batting just .215 against starting pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — lowest in MLB.

Padres Pitching Stats & Trends

Padres pitchers have walked 10% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB.

The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 68% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Padres pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 105 MPH 174 times this season — tied for 5th fewest in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 437.3 feet — — shortest in MLB

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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