- The Padres are -125 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-125) on Monday, July 7, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 44-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 47-42 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 6-9, 5.46 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +165 | O 8 -102 | +105 |
| Padres | +1.5 -220 | U 8 -118 | -125 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+23.00 Units / 230% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+7.45 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+16.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games at home (+11.40 Units / 228% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.40 Units / 32% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 74 games (+14.80 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.40 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 47 games (+18.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+4.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 42-48 against the Run Line (-10.66 Units / -9.37% ROI).
- 44-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -11.71% ROI
- 47-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.9 Units / 3.92% ROI
- 39-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.4 Units / -12.6% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 47-42 against the Run Line (+1.1 Units / 0.95% ROI).
- 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.85% ROI
- 36-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.45 Units / -18.96% ROI
- 50-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.15 Units / 10.28% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Luis Arraez (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish (SD) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Zac Gallen has a in-zone of just 36% (171/476) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Zac Gallen has walked 11% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to June 3rd — Matt Waldron has the longest active streak at 8.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 33% (43/129) against Yu Darvish on non-fastballs in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .430 (43-for-100) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: .342 — fourth Percentile.
Yu Darvish had a strike rate of 72% (336/466) on sliders in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 49% of the time (923/1,872) vs left-handed batters since the 2023 season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 38-8 (.826) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 40-4 (.909) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Diamondbacks are just 35-10 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .873.
The Diamondbacks are 102-26 (.791) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Padres are just 39-3 (.929) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Padres are 23-15 (.605) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Padres are 54-15 (.783) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .341 (4,897 PA’s) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .776 (9,750 PA’s) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Diamondbacks batted .284 against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have struck out in just 20% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Padres have scored first in 91% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have not walked any of the 64 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 4% of batters over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have 108 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd fewest in MLB.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
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