- The Padres are -140 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Padres TV Channel: DBTV | PDTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-140) on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 45-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 47-44 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 8-6, 5.44 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 3-8, 4.66 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -118 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -102 | -140 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 55.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- James McCann has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+14.00 Units / 175% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+10.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- James McCann has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.45 Units / 74% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Dylan Cease has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 5 of his last 8 games (+2.05 Units / 24% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
Padres Best Bets Today:
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 44-48 against the Run Line (-9.66 Units / -8.35% ROI).
- 45-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -10.77% ROI
- 48-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.9 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 39-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -13.57% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 47-44 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.09% ROI).
- 49-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.21% ROI
- 37-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.45 Units / -17.73% ROI
- 50-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.05 Units / 9.07% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Naylor (ARI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a slugging percentage of .408 (78 Total Bases / 191 ABs) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — first Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has a strike rate of just 57% when ahead in the count (seventh lowest)– ninth Percentile and 73% when behind in the count this season (eighth highest among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OPS of .706 (215 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .480 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .280 (103-for-368) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fifth Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has thrown his slider 43% of the time (370/868) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (60/151) against Dylan Cease on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (485/842) against right-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (181/332) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 39-8 (.830) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 36-10 (.783) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 41-4 (.911) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Diamondbacks are just 7-10 (.412) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Padres are 9-31 (.225) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Padres are just 40-3 (.930) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Padres are 96-10 (.906) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .863.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .777 (6,875 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .333 (6,875 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have scored first in 92% of their games against division opponents this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of 63% with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 60%.
Padres hitters struck out just 278 times in 1,617 PA’s (17%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have an ERA of 4.64 (820.1 IP) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.08.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 42% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 6% of batters over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Padres have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Batters facing the Padres pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 61% of the time over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%. over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Diamondbacks vs Padres and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
