Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 05, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (74-61) are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (64-69)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson (-), ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (6-7), 3.87 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+185) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 63-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-73 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -110O 8 -105+185
Padres -1.5 -110U 8 -115-225

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 45 of his last 94 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Sean Manaea has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Josh Bell 0.5 +425 0.5 -900
Juan Soto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Josh Bell 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Juan Soto 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Josh Bell 0.5 +130 0.5 -185
Juan Soto 0.5 +185 0.5 -275

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Blake Snell 6.5 -140 6.5 -105
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 55 games (+27.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 72% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 110 games (+8.30 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 77-53 against the Run Line (+21.4 Units / 12.8% ROI).

  • 63-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.21% ROI
  • 59-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -9.36% ROI
  • 66-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-73 against the Run Line (-18.2 Units / -11.14% ROI).

  • 72-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -4.81% ROI
  • 63-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -5.21% ROI
  • 65-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -3.2% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Blake Snell has walked 43 of 250 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 92 of 753 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.

Blake Snell has walked 20 of 104 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .337 (30 GB hits out of 89 GBs) against Blake Snell this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 104-31 (.770) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 115-20 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 47-12 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are just 2-47 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.

The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .288 (605 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Padres hitters are slugging .360 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

Padres hitters are slugging just .227 at home over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% against Padres pitchers this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Padres pitchers have walked 73 of 1,204 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.