- The Padres (74-61) are -225 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (64-69)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson (-), – ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell (6-7), 3.87 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+185) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, September 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 63-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-73 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -105 | +185 |
| Padres | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -115 | -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 45 of his last 94 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sean Manaea has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 55 games (+27.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 23 of their last 39 away games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 110 games (+8.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 77-53 against the Run Line (+21.4 Units / 12.8% ROI).
- 63-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 59-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -9.36% ROI
- 66-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-73 against the Run Line (-18.2 Units / -11.14% ROI).
- 72-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.4 Units / -4.81% ROI
- 63-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -5.21% ROI
- 65-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -3.2% ROI
Ryne Nelson: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Blake Snell: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 43 of 250 batters (17%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 92 of 753 right-handed batters (12%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Blake Snell has walked 20 of 104 batters (19%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .337 (30 GB hits out of 89 GBs) against Blake Snell this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 104-31 (.770) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 115-20 (.852) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 47-12 (.797) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 2-47 (.041) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Padres are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .668.
The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .288 (605 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters are slugging .360 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .377 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres hitters are slugging just .227 at home over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% against Padres pitchers this month (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Padres pitchers have walked 73 of 1,204 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alfaro (Padres): Knee, D10
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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