Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 6

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 06, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Padres (74-62) are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (65-69)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (12-5), 2.84 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (9-6), 3.01 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 64-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-74 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -155O 7 -105+140
Padres -1.5 +125U 7 -115-165

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 45 of his last 94 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Sean Manaea has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Josh Bell 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Juan Soto 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Josh Bell 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Juan Soto 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Josh Bell 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joe Musgrove 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
Merrill Kelly 4.5 -105 4.5 -135
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 56 games (+29.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 80% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 58 of their last 111 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 33% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 78-53 against the Run Line (+22.4 Units / 13.31% ROI).

  • 64-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 3.52% ROI
  • 59-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -10.08% ROI
  • 67-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 0.58% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-74 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -11.73% ROI).

  • 72-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -5.94% ROI
  • 63-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -5.96% ROI
  • 66-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -2.5% ROI

Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .263 (26 Total Bases / 99 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .129 (39-for-303) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 92nd Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (42/201) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (11-for-90) against Merrill Kelly’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 97th Percentile.

Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

41% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 85th Percentile.

Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.5 MPH (404 batted balls) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.4 — 92nd Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 61% of Joe Musgrove’s pitches in the zone (714/1,172) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .139 (11-for-79) against Joe Musgrove in late innings since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 98th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 105-31 (.772) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 116-20 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are 9-49 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.

The Padres are 59-6 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have drawn 314 walks in 3,270 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Padres pitchers have walked 8 of 52 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.