- The Padres (74-62) are -165 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (65-69)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (12-5), 2.84 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove (9-6), 3.01 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-165) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 64-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-74 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -155 | O 7 -105 | +140 |
| Padres | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -115 | -165 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 45 of his last 94 games (+13.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Merrill Kelly has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.75 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games (+15.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 29 games (+14.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sean Manaea has hit the Earned Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Musgrove | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 56 games (+29.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 58 of their last 111 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 33% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 78-53 against the Run Line (+22.4 Units / 13.31% ROI).
- 64-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.2 Units / 3.52% ROI
- 59-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.45 Units / -10.08% ROI
- 67-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 0.58% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-74 against the Run Line (-19.3 Units / -11.73% ROI).
- 72-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -5.94% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.65 Units / -5.96% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -2.5% ROI
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .263 (26 Total Bases / 99 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .410 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .129 (39-for-303) against Merrill Kelly with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (42/201) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 14th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .122 (11-for-90) against Merrill Kelly’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: .225 — 97th Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
41% of Joe Musgrove’s non-fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 85th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 86.5 MPH (404 batted balls) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 88.4 — 92nd Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 61% of Joe Musgrove’s pitches in the zone (714/1,172) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 67% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (11-for-79) against Joe Musgrove in late innings since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 105-31 (.772) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-20 (.853) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are 9-49 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are just 2-48 (.040) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Padres are 25-7 (.781) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Padres are 59-6 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .221 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have drawn 314 walks in 3,270 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have chased 27% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Padres pitchers have walked 8 of 52 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- William Myers (Padres): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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