Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 07, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (75-62) are -200 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (65-70)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry (3-3), 4.83 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (12-7), 3.26 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+170) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 64-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-75 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -115O 8.5 -115+170
Padres -1.5 -105U 8.5 -105-200

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+14.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 39 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 48 of his last 65 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Josh Bell 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Juan Soto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Ha-seong Kim 1.5 +190 1.5 -275
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Josh Bell 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Juan Soto 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Josh Bell 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Juan Soto 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 +105 6.5 -150
Tommy Henry 3.5 +120 3.5 -165
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 57 games (+30.15 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+12.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 58 of their last 112 games (+8.25 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-53 against the Run Line (+23.4 Units / 13.79% ROI).

  • 64-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 2.82% ROI
  • 60-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -9.31% ROI
  • 67-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.14% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-75 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -12.27% ROI).

  • 73-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -5.4% ROI
  • 64-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -5.23% ROI
  • 66-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -3.18% ROI

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (17/29) against Tommy Henry — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (14/26) against Tommy Henry against right-handed batters — 12th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 10th Percentile.

Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .159 (61-for-383) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .242 (58 Total Bases / 240 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — 97th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .165 (19-for-115) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 98th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has walked 31 of 649 batters (5%) this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Diamondbacks are just 105-32 (.766) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Diamondbacks are just 51-9 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Padres are 26-7 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Padres are just 3-48 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Padres are 59-6 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Diamondbacks have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters have an OBP of .347 (656 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Padres pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 461.1

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.