- The Padres (75-62) are -200 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (65-70)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry (3-3), 4.83 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (12-7), 3.26 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+170) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Wednesday, September 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 64-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 59-75 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -115 | +170 |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 41 games (+14.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 39 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 48 of his last 65 games (+12.20 Units / 9% ROI)
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Juan Soto | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yu Darvish | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
| Tommy Henry | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 57 games (+30.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+12.00 Units / 84% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 away games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 58 of their last 112 games (+8.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 79-53 against the Run Line (+23.4 Units / 13.79% ROI).
- 64-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 60-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -9.31% ROI
- 67-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.2 Units / -0.14% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 59-75 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -12.27% ROI).
- 73-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -5.4% ROI
- 64-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.65 Units / -5.23% ROI
- 66-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -3.18% ROI
Thomas Henry: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 59% (17/29) against Tommy Henry — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 54% (14/26) against Tommy Henry against right-handed batters — 12th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 10th Percentile.
Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .159 (61-for-383) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .242 (58 Total Bases / 240 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .165 (19-for-115) against Yu Darvish on low fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has walked 31 of 649 batters (5%) this season — tied for 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Diamondbacks are just 105-32 (.766) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 10-31 (.244) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-21 (.847) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Diamondbacks are just 51-9 (.850) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Padres are 26-7 (.788) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Padres are 24-9 (.727) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.
The Padres are just 3-48 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Padres are 59-6 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 43% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Diamondbacks have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .347 (656 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Padres pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 461.1
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Brandon Drury (Padres): Head, D7
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Yonny Hernandez (Diamondbacks): Calf, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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