- The Phillies (30-29) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (28-33)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kyle Nelson (1-0), 2.038 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (4-3), 4.418 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Sunday, June 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-28 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -120 | O 9.5 -110 | +155 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +100 | U 9.5 -110 | -190 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+13.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+13.70 Units / 75% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games at home (+9.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 54 games (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 8 games (+10.20 Units / 104% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-26 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 7.63% ROI).
- 28-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.99% ROI
- 25-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -19.62% ROI
- 35-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 10.31% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 31-28 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 3.84% ROI).
- 30-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -4.59% ROI
- 34-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.7 Units / 13.31% ROI
- 23-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -21.83% ROI
Kyle Nelson: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Nelson’s K:BB ratio is 9.5 (19/2) this season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 97th Percentile.
Kyle Nelson has walked 2 of 69 batters (3%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
17 of Kyle Nelson’s 19 strikeouts (90%) have come on cutters this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 99th Percentile.
Kyle Nelson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — A.J. Minter has the longest active streak at 65.1.
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (71 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 89.9
Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1886.6 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 2207.7 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (82/445) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez allowed an OBP of just .105 (19 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .302 — 98th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are just 77-21 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Diamondbacks are just 85-14 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.
The Diamondbacks are 4-26 (.133) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Diamondbacks are just 14-16 (.467) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.
The Phillies are 81-62 (.566) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Phillies are just 11-22 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .183 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .192 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .744 (2,229 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Phillies hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Phillies pitchers have walked 3 of 112 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
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