Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 12, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Phillies (30-29) are -190 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (28-33)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kyle Nelson (1-0), 2.038 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (4-3), 4.418 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+155) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-190) on Sunday, June 12, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 28-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 31-28 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -120O 9.5 -110+155
Phillies -1.5 +100U 9.5 -110-190

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 55.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+13.70 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+7.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+6.70 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+13.70 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games at home (+9.00 Units / 120% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+4.55 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 54 games (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 8 games (+10.20 Units / 104% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in their last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 35-26 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 7.63% ROI).

  • 28-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.65 Units / 0.99% ROI
  • 25-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -19.62% ROI
  • 35-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 10.31% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 31-28 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 3.84% ROI).

  • 30-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.6 Units / -4.59% ROI
  • 34-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.7 Units / 13.31% ROI
  • 23-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.1 Units / -21.83% ROI

Kyle Nelson’s K:BB ratio is 9.5 (19/2) this season — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 2.7 — 97th Percentile.

Kyle Nelson has walked 2 of 69 batters (3%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.

17 of Kyle Nelson’s 19 strikeouts (90%) have come on cutters this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 99th Percentile.

Kyle Nelson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 27.1 innings he’s appeared — A.J. Minter has the longest active streak at 65.1.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (71 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 89.9

Ranger Suarez has an average spin rate of 1886.6 RPM on fastballs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 2207.7 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (82/445) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez allowed an OBP of just .105 (19 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .302 — 98th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Diamondbacks are just 77-21 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Diamondbacks are just 85-14 (.859) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

The Diamondbacks are 4-26 (.133) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Diamondbacks are just 14-16 (.467) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Phillies are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .074.

The Phillies are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .099.

The Phillies are 81-62 (.566) at home since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Phillies are just 11-22 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .183 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Diamondbacks hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .192 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .210 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Phillies hitters are slugging .456 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .382.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .785 (1,060 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .744 (2,229 PA’s) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.

Phillies hitters are slugging .685 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .214.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .251 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Phillies pitchers have walked 3 of 112 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D10
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Rafael Marchán (Phillies): Hamstring, D60
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.