- The Phillies are -150 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Phillies TV Channel: DBTV | NSPA
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-150) on Friday, May 2, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 17-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 16-15 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 3-1, 4.41 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 3-0, 1.74 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -120 | +125 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 +100 | -150 |
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tim Tawa has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+16.80 Units / 240% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Max Kepler has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+13.90 Units / 347% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.90 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.40 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.10 Units / 42% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 15-16 against the Run Line (-1.3 Units / -3.41% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.3 Units / 0.76% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 8.41% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.85 Units / -17.06% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 16-15 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.54% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -3.19% ROI
- 15-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -7.35% ROI
- 16-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -1.46% ROI
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -325 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .148 (54 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .283 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (5-for-51) against Merrill Kelly when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (5-for-51) against Merrill Kelly when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .157 (8 Total Bases / 51 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .344 — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .220 (11 Total Bases / 50 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — 92nd Percentile.
32% of Jesus Luzardo’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 52% — seventh Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 56% (41 SO in 73 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of just .301 (28 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .666 — 94th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Diamondbacks are 82-17 (.820) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Diamondbacks are 9-6 (.600) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Diamondbacks are 3-11 (.214) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.
The Diamondbacks were 67-15 (.807) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Phillies are just 8-16 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies are just 15-23 (.395) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Phillies were 83-15 (.847) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Phillies are 59-11 (.843) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters had an OBP of .347 (3,080 PA’s) at home in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 14% of it’s PA’s against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .277 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Diamondbacks have scored 1.80 runs per game (347/193) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters had an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .341 (2,281 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,150 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Phillies batted .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks pitchers had an ERA of 4.68 (739.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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